Look, I don’t want to completely make this about me and the life choices I made to get to this point in my career, but if there’s one thing I truly hate, it’s writing Showdown articles where we don’t know the status of one team’s star quarterback. It sort of defeats the purpose, you know?
Yet, that’s exactly where I find myself heading into Week 7’s tilt between the Jacksonville Jaguars and the New Orleans Saints. That is why, for the sake of simplicity, this article will be conceived under the assumption that Trevor Lawrence ($9,600; knee) is playing. He said he was optimistic he’d be available on Tuesday night and that’s good enough for me.
Now that that’s been settled, let’s dive into the rest of this primetime slate.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL Showdown $2.25M Thursday Night Millionaire [$1M to 1st] (JAX vs NO)
SHOWDOWN STRATEGY
Captain’s Picks
Alvin Kamara ($15,600 CP) – While Jaguars D/ST ($3,800) has been incredibly stout against the run through six games — it’s allowing an AFC-low 75.3 opponent rushing yards per contest — Kamara is far from a conventional running back. Not only has the veteran logged an impressive 73.1% snap share since returning from a suspension back in Week 4, Kamara also leads the Saints in both targets (25) and receptions (23) within that span of time. In fact, it’s not really all that close. Maybe Kamara’s stranglehold on snaps will be slightly affected if Jamaal Williams ($4,200; hamstring) is able to suit up on Thursday, but again, it’s the Tennessee product’s pass-catching ability that really makes him valuable in a full-point PPR setting. The matchup doesn’t hurt, either. Jacksonville is surrendering the second-most targets per game (7.7) and the third-most receptions per game (6.5) to opposing RBs. In Week 6, Colts running backs combined for 11 catches and 84 yards. Kamara is the perfect man to take advantage of this defense.
Travis Etienne ($15,300 CP) – Even if we project that the aforementioned Lawrence is playing in this contest, we can’t assume 100% health. It’s very likely the former first-overall pick will be compromised, which could open up some extra opportunity for Etienne. However, if I’m being completely honest, there isn’t all that much more Etienne can do. The 24-year-old comes into Week 7 leading the entire NFL in touches (134) and sitting second among all RBs in scrimmage yards (623). When Christian McCaffrey is the only man beating you in a statistical category, you’re doing pretty well for yourself. The matchup is far from ideal — Saints D/ST ($5,400) is conceding the second-fewest DKFP per game to opposing running backs — yet there’s a case to be made that New Orleans hasn’t faced an offense nearly as potent as the Jaguars. When the best unit you’ve seen belongs to either Houston or Tampa Bay, I think we can all agree the schedule has been a cakewalk. Ignore the data and trust in Etienne’s raw volume.
FLEX Plays
Evan Engram ($5,800) – Engram is having a very strange season — not to be confused with Brenton Strange ($1,000). On the one hand, the veteran TE is being peppered with targets. Engram’s registered at least seven targets in five consecutive games, while he and Travis Kelce are the lone tight ends in the NFL with at least 30 receptions since the beginning of Week 2. That’s pretty damn good. On the other hand, Engram has yet to catch a touchdown. Heck, he’s even yet to catch a pass in the red zone. While that seems out of character for a TE, it’s worth remembering that Engram wasn’t a massive fixture in Jacksonville’s goal line offense in 2022, either. It’s actually Zay Jones (knee) that leads the Jaguars with 25 red zone targets going back to the start of last season. Well, Jones has already been ruled out against the Saints. If there was ever a time for Engram to find pay dirt, it would be Thursday.
Rashid Shaheed ($5,000) – I have a type in Showdown, and it is very much Shaheed. Basically, Shaheed is the kind of asset that can break a single-game slate open with one touch. The wideout already has three receptions of over 40 yards through six weeks, while the 18.6 yards Shaheed averages per catch is the third-most of any WR with at least 20 targets. Meanwhile, Jacksonville’s secondary is allowing the ninth-most opponent yards per pass attempt (6.9) and the 11th-most DKFP per contest to opposing wide receivers. It’s a unit that can be exploited.
Fades
Taysom Hill ($6,200) – You’re either a Taysom Hill person or you aren’t. I find myself squarely in the latter camp. It’s not that the BYU product can’t have big performances — and it’s certainly not like he doesn’t vulture high-leverage touches — but Hill’s role and volume is almost a mystery every single week. He also hasn’t been featured nearly as much since Kamara returned to action, with Hill’s rushing attempts dropping from 5.3 per game the first three contests of the season to just 2.7 per game since Week 4. Yes, Hill did have seven receptions in last Sunday’s loss to the Texans, but Derek Carr ($8,800) had an outlandish 50 passing attempts in that 20-13 defeat. That’s a total outlier. At the end of the day, Hill’s scored less than 4.0 DKFP four times, with a season-high of only 12.3 DKFP. That doesn’t seem like an asset deserving of a salary above $6K.
THE OUTCOME
This is a tough matchup to handicap. If Lawrence weren’t currently on the Jaguars injury report, I’d have a fairly easy time backing Jacksonville on the road, as I truly believe the Saints have yet to face a playoff-caliber opponent. So, as long as he plays, I guess I’ll continue to follow that train of thought.
Final Score: Jacksonville 24, New Orleans 17
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL Showdown $2.25M Thursday Night Millionaire [$1M to 1st] (JAX vs NO)
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is theglt13) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
