Can you take me higher? To a place where blind men see? These are presumably the questions the Texas Rangers are scream-singing at each other in the locker room prior to every playoff game. Well, kudos to Scott Stapp and the boys, because it’s working. The Rangers are 7-0 so far in the postseason and they don’t look like they’re slowing down anytime soon.
Still, you’d have to imagine that the Houston Astros would be open to breaking that streak on Wednesday night. Wide open, you might say. …Their arms would be wide open. You get it. It’s another Creed reference. I only know like two songs.
Let’s just get into it.
Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB Showdown $175K Relay Throw [$50K to 1st] (HOU vs TEX)
SHOWDOWN STRATEGY
Captain’s Picks
Yordan Alvarez ($14,400 CP) – I’m just not sure how you’d fade the slugger at this point. Though strikeouts have been a slight issue for Alvarez so far in the postseason, the left-handed behemoth is slashing .391/.440/1.261 with an .870 ISO in 25 plate appearances thanks primarily to six long balls. That’s a terrifying stat line in a vacuum, much less in a matchup with Max Scherzer ($11,800) — a man who has not thrown a pitch in an actual game for more than five weeks. Even if you want to downplay the significance of Schzerer’s injury and time on the shelf, it’s worth noting that the 39-year-old RHP struggled with home runs during the regular season, surrendering a career-worst 1.65 per nine across his 152.2 innings of work. If there’s one man who can take advantage of that flaw, it’s Alvarez.
Corey Seager ($14,100 CP) – Seager has received the Barry Bonds treatment so far in the playoffs, with a 32.4% walk rate in his 34 plate appearances. Still, that hasn’t stopped the All-Star from being productive, as Seager’s managed to slash .348/.559/.609 with a 215 wRC+. This all makes sense. Seager was an offensive machine in the regular season, especially in opposite-hand matchups. In fact, only Shohei Ohtani registered a higher slugging percentage and wRC+ among qualified hitters against RHPs, with Seager posting an eye-popping .667 slugging and 183 wRC+ within the split. As for this specific matchup with Cristian Javier ($10,600), it clearly favors the veteran infielder. LHBs combined to slash .279/.369/.488 off Javier in his final 17 starts of the regular season, while Seager has hit two home runs and managed a .900 OPS versus Javier in 20 career at-bats.
FLEX Plays
Max Scherzer ($11,800) – Despite his issues keeping the ball in the park, Scherzer still finished 2023 with a 3.28 xERA and a 28.0% strikeout rate. He obviously has the track record and the potential for a massive performance, and that makes him viable on any Showdown slate. The key distinction here is that you can not risk him in the Captain’s slot. Scherzer threw 69 pitches in his simulated game last Wednesday. I doubt he’s allowed to throw more than 80 pitches in Game 3.
Evan Carter ($7,000) – Carter has been the breakout star for the Rangers during this playoff run, slashing .350/.536/.700 with a 234 wRC+ in seven games. The top prospect was also red-hot coming into October, as Carter owned a .339 ISO and a .435 wOBA in the 75 plate appearances he received at the big league level in the final month of the regular season. In general, the rookie is a modestly-priced left-handed bat to throw at Javier. However, if the rumors that Carter could bat third for Texas in Game 3 are true, he suddenly becomes one of the best assets on the slate.
Michael Brantley ($5,800) – It’s a small sample, but Brantley has looked like himself so far in the playoffs, hitting .357 with a 198 wRC+ in his 16 plate appearances. We haven’t seen much of the former All-Star since 2021, yet the 36-year-old seems healthy and will likely bat sixth in Houston’s lineup this evening. That’s great news for the Astros and terrible news for Scherzer. In 54 career at-bats against the future Hall of Fame starter, Brantley has racked up 20 hits, three home runs and a jaw-dropping 1.122 OPS.
Fades
Cristian Javier ($10,600) – Maybe Javier is simply the most “clutch” pitcher on planet Earth. After a dominant run in the playoffs in 2022, Javier threw six scoreless innings in Houston’s final game of the regular season to clinch the AL West. He then followed that up with five scoreless frames against the Twins in the ALDS. Is he suddenly fixed? I have my doubts. First and foremost, Javier pitched to a 6.20 ERA and 5.58 FIP from June 21 to October 1. That’s an 81.1 inning sample and includes his lone meeting with the Rangers in 2023 — a contest where Javier conceded a career-worst eight earned runs. Also, in that outing versus Minnesota, Javier walked five opponents and was saved by a .143 BABIP. There’s still more than enough red flags surrounding the RHP and I’d expect Dusty Baker to keep him on a very short leash, especially with Houston down 2-0 in the series.
THE OUTCOME
With question marks about both starting pitchers in this contest, I’d be more inclined to bet the over than I would be siding with any particular team. That said, I do trust Max Scherzer more than the broken version of Cristian Javier we’ve endured for a majority of the last six months. Texas makes it eight wins in a row on Wednesday.
Final Score: Texas 6, Houston 4
Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB Showdown $175K Relay Throw [$50K to 1st] (HOU vs TEX)
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is theglt13) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
