I’m not sure if you noticed during yesterday’s action, but the AFC absolutely wiped the floor with the NFC in head-to-head competition. Six games. Six wins. That includes the 49ers and the Eagles losing their previously undefeated campaigns in surprising upsets.
Can the Los Angeles Chargers make that a 7-0 record for Week 6 with a victory over the Dallas Cowboys? Let’s dive into it.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $2.25M Monday Night Millionaire [$1M to 1st] (DAL vs LAC)
SHOWDOWN STRATEGY
Captain’s Picks
Austin Ekeler ($16,800 CP) – An ankle injury has kept Ekeler off the field since the first game of the season, but the veteran appears to be back at 100% with the assistance of the Chargers’ well-timed bye week. In fact, Ekeler practiced in full all three days leading up to this evening’s tilt with the Cowboys. Ekeler was a monster in that loss to the Dolphins, turning 20 touches into 164 scrimmage yards, a touchdown and 29.4 DKFP. While that might turn out to be a ceiling performance for the RB going forward, Ekeler was a top pick in redraft formats for a reason. Few backs combine his level of volume on both the ground and in the passing attack with a secured role at the goal line. This is also a better matchup that you might initially assume. Cowboys D/ST ($3,800) is considered one of the best units in football, yet the team has struggled to stop the run in recent contests. Dallas surrendered 170 rushing yards in a lopsided loss to San Francisco in Week 5, and the 148.3 opponent rushing yards per game its surrendered since Week 3 is the fifth-most in the NFL in that span. Look for Ekeler to reintroduce himself with a bang.
Dak Prescott ($15,000 CP) – I am aware of the cloud of negativity that currently hovers over the head of all things Prescott. I am also aware that some of the flack the Cowboys’ pivot has received has been justified. Prescott has had a pretty underwhelming beginning to the current campaign. After tossing three interceptions last week versus the 49ers, Prescott is actually averaging fewer DKFP per drop back (0.36) than Sam Howell or Desmond Ridder. That’s not the kind of company you expect the veteran QB to be keeping. At the same time, I don’t anticipate this level of play continuing. Not only is Prescott’s 3.1% touchdown rate by far the lowest of his career, but not every defense is as good as San Francisco’s. Take Chargers D/ST ($3,200), for example. It’s a unit that entered Week 6 allowing the most opponent passing yards per game (299.8) and the most DKFP per contest to opposing quarterbacks. Yes, those numbers are slightly inflated by Tua Tagovailoa’s massive Week 1 stat line, yet Los Angeles has faced Ryan Tannehill and Aiden O’Connell, as well. It hasn’t exactly been a never-ending parade of MVP candidates. Prescott should be able to take advantage of a weak secondary and get his season back on track.
Value FLEX Plays
Michael Gallup ($2,800) – An endorsement of Prescott means I’m all in on the Cowboys’ aerial attack on Monday night. Obviously CeeDee Lamb ($9,000) is the No. 1 target in this offense, but he’s priced accordingly, so you’ll have to take a different path if looking for some value. That’s where Gallup enters the conversation. The veteran wideout has yet to find the end zone this season, yet he comes into Week 6 sitting second among Dallas’ skill-position assets in routes run (142) and receiving yards (180), while also ranking third in targets (22). Gallup’s best performance was easily Week 3 against the Cardinals, where he turned seven targets into six catches and 92 yards. However, that showing came with an asterisk. Brandin Cooks ($5,400) missed that game with a knee issue, opening up some extra work for his teammate. Still, even with Cooks active the past two weeks and the duo playing a near identical amount of snaps, Gallup has collected more targets and receptions than the former first-round pick. It really makes you wonder why Cooks is priced at double the salary, doesn’t it?
Donald Parham ($2,200) – First and foremost, it appears Parham will be available for tonight’s contest, as he logged full practices on both Friday and Saturday. Aside from that, there’s not really too much that you need to know about his viability. If you’re putting Parham into a lineup, you’re fishing for a cheap touchdown. Now, there’s some method to this madness. It’s more than simply closing your eyes and crossing your fingers. Through four games, Parham is tied with Keenan Allen ($10,600) for the team lead in red zone targets (5). In fact, Parham’s adjusted target share inside the red zone is a whopping 41.7%. Without question, Justin Herbert ($10,800) likes finding his backup TE in high-leverage situations.
Fades
Joshua Palmer ($7,000) – Palmer filled in nicely for the injured Mike Williams (knee) in Week 4, with three catches for 77 yards in a win over the Raiders. However, with the aforementioned Ekeler back in the fold and Allen currently maintaining a gargantuan 31.9% adjusted target share, it feels like opportunities are going to be at a premium for Los Angeles’ tertiary offensive weapons. That’s in a vacuum, too. Things should be even worse in this specific matchup. Dallas is conceding just 168.6 opponent passing yards per game this season — the lowest mark of any NFC team. That’s also translated into surrendering the second-fewest DKFP per contest to opposing WRs. Palmer, who happens to be carrying his highest price tag of the season, just isn’t in a great position to bring back value.
THE OUTCOME
This is an interesting spot for the Cowboys. While I don’t think the team is as bad as last week’s embarrassing 42-10 loss to the 49ers, Dallas’ three wins this season have come against the Giants, the Jets and the Patriots. They don’t have a marquee performance, and now they’ll square-off with a Chargers squad that used the bye week to get some key players healthy.
Will Dallas have the crowd advantage in Los Angeles? Almost assuredly. Yet I still find myself leaning towards the home team. Justin Herbert is that good.
Final Score: Los Angeles 27, Dallas 24
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $2.25M Monday Night Millionaire [$1M to 1st] (DAL vs LAC)
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