After days of waiting, the ALCS is finally here. The Texas Rangers take the trip down I-45 to kick off this Texas-sized showdown against the Houston Astros, with first pitch of Game 1 from Minute Maid Park set for 8:15 p.m. ET. Houston sends postseason stalwart Justin Verlander (13-8, 3.22 ERA) to the mound to start, while the Rangers hope lefty Jordan Montgomery (10-11, 3.20) can continue his sensational October so far.
The Astros enter as -142 favorites on the moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook, with Texas at +120. The run total is set at 8.5.
Rangers vs. Astros ALCS Game 1 picks: Sunday, October 15
Injury report
Rangers
N/A
N/A
Starting pitchers
Jordan Montgomery vs. Justin Verlander
Montgomery was brilliant in his first start of the postseason, firing seven shutout innings in a win over the Rays in Game 1 of the Rangers’ Wild Card series. He was much, much shakier in his one ALDS outing, allowing five runs (four earned) on nine hits with just two strikeouts over four innings of work … only for his offense to pick him up in an eventual 11-8 Texas win over the Orioles. Prior to that clunker against Baltimore, though, the lefty has been everything Texas could’ve hoped for when they acquired him at the trade deadline; amid injuries to Nathan Eovaldi, Max Scherzer and Jon Gray, Montgomery has been the stalwart, with a quality start in nine of 13 outings as a Ranger across the regular season and postseason. He faced the Astros once before this year, as a member of the Cardinals back in June, and pitched well, allowing one run on six hits over 6.2 innings in a win.
Speaking of clutch trade-deadline deals: Verlander was a bit bumpy to begin his second go-round with the ‘Stros — he allowed five or more runs in three of his first seven starts with the team — but he’s rounded into form at just the right time. The righty was instrumental in Houston rallying to steal the AL West title, firing eight innings of one-run ball on the road against the Mariners and then five shutout innings against the Diamondbacks on the season’s final weekend. He was also great in his one October start so far, allowing four hits over six shutout innings in a Game 1 win over the Twins. Verlander has faced the Rangers once before this year, allowing two runs on four hits over seven innings as part of a demonstrative Astros sweep in Arlington back in early September.
Over/Under pick
Both of these pitchers have been very good of late, but I’m still taking the over here. Montgomery wasn’t nearly as sharp in his ALDS start, and this Astros lineup has been absolutely wearing out lefty pitching all season — Houston’s OPS against left-handers was second only to Atlanta, slashing .270/.339/.470 as a team, and while Minnesota understandably stayed away from those matchups in the ALDS they still went 3-for-6 with two homers. At home in a hitter-friendly park (especially for righties) I think the Astros eventually get to Montgomery, and while Verlander is a tougher matchup on the other side, this deep and dangerous Texas lineup shouldn’t get totally blanked.
Pick: Over 8.5
Moneyline pick
I’ve already tipped my hand here a bit, but I trust Verlander more than Montgomery in this spot, and while Texas’ bullpen has been great over its five postseason games, I still need them to prove it to me one more time before I fully buy in. I don’t think the Rangers bats will be enough to steal Game 1 on the road.
Pick: Astros -142
