GPPs are not won by using all of the most popular players on the slate. Being a contrarian in a big-field event can help separate your lineup and gain you leverage over the field when some of the more popular names bust. The goal of this article won’t be to highlight the popular “play-it-safe” names that your Dad talks about at family dinner.
No. Us? We’re looking for some diamonds in the rough and guys that no one talks about — not even their own coaches.
OK, we’re not going that deep, but you get the idea — lower ownership and high upside. We’re looking for players who we feel good about but still make us feel alive inside. That’s the goal.
Let’s dive into Week 6.
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Stacks
Game Stack: Los Angeles Rams vs. Arizona Cardinals
Joshua Dobbs ($5,200) — Cooper Kupp ($9,000) — Kyren Williams ($6,500) — Marquise Brown ($5,300) — Zach Ertz ($3,600)
The total in the Rams-Cardinals game has been rising all week and currently sits at 48.5 with the Rams having a 27.75 implied team total. While Matthew Stafford’s ($6,100) production to date has been a little disappointing for fantasy purposes, that doesn’t mean we shouldn’t target his number-one receiver in Cooper Kupp. Kupp’s price has risen but he posted an eight reception, 118-yard performance last week while taking a 40% air yards share and 37% target share. In short, Kupp is back and this offense should roll through him as long as he remains healthy.
The Cardinals, as an opponent, couldn’t be much better for another Kupp breakout game either. They rank 25th in yards per pass attempt against and just allowed Ja’Marr Chase to total 50+ fantasy points in full PPR scoring. With the Cardinals’ defense being such a liability — and the Rams being -7.0 favorites — it doesn’t hurt to stack Kupp with the Rams starting RB in Kyren Williams, either. Williams has had a couple of tougher matchups of late but remains locked into a near-every-down role (92% carry rate last week) and will be in a positive game script against a weak rush defense.
While you could pay up for the aforementioned Stafford at QB, taking the cheaper salary on Joshua Dobbs — who has averaged 19.35 DKFP over his last four games — may actually be the more prudent move. Dobbs has rushing upside (28.4 rush yards per game) and will likely be the lower-owned of the two QBs. We can also pair him with a couple of primary targets to keep the overall salary down. A cheap Zach Ertz against a Rams defense that has allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing TEs makes plenty of sense but the real upside comes with Marquise Brown. Brown has been very good with Dobbs — averaging over 16.0 DKFP over his last four games — and comes in with an elite 30% target share and 43% air yards share.
This game should be fast-paced, have plenty of back-and-forth swings — given the presence of two below-average defenses — and will have zero weather concerns making it a perfect one to target for stacks this week.
Quarterback: Bryce Young ($5,100), Carolina Panthers at Miami Dolphins
This pick is all about garbage time points, or at least the potential for garbage time points. The Panthers come into Miami as +13.5 underdogs but were able to get some offensive momentum in their last start, where Bryce Young was able to record the first three-touchdown game of his career. It’s unlikely that Carolina’s momentum will be enough to seriously challenge Miami but it’s very possible the game is somewhat close throughout.
Another near certainty is that Young will pile up some yards late in this game. Miami’s pass defense isn’t so hot, as they have thin talent at the cornerback position and have allowed 7.0 yards per pass attempt against (23rd in the league). Young’s yards per attempt metrics have increased each of the last two weeks and with the Panthers starting to simplify the play-calling, another solid fantasy outing from the rookie could be on tap for Week 6. He makes sense to use as a punt target at QB or as part of a cheaper QB/WR Panthers stack.
Running Back
Top End: Raheem Mostert ($6,400), Miami Dolphins vs. Carolina Panthers
The setup couldn’t be much sweeter. The Dolphins come in as -13.5 favorites and have an offense that currently ranks first in yards per carry and overall offensive DVOA. Mostert will also be in a position to see a bigger workload after rookie De’Von Achane went down with injury last week. For the season, the 31-year-old Mostert has been stout, averaging 5.4 yards per carry and has a solid enough 55% route rate in the passing game.
The Dolphins may not need to throw much but Mostert could take a bigger role as a receiver with Achane out and figures to only cede minimal work to backups Jeff Wilson ($4,300) and Salvon Ahmed ($4,500) once the game is slated away. The Panthers being one of the worst rush defenses in the league (28th in yards per carry allowed) makes this an almost unfadeable spot. Take the layup and make sure to get some exposure to the lead RB in the best offense in the league.
Low End: Rhamondre Stevenson ($5,400), New England Patriots at Las Vegas Raiders
Stevenson is the classic buy-low candidate this week for betting and daily fantasy. His price hasn’t dropped off much but you know that the Patriots’ offensive struggles will make him a lower-owned option in most big DFS tournaments. Stevenson was so good last year (RB7 in full PPR) that it is hard to believe how poor he’s been to date (2.8 yards per carry). Still, the Raiders are a good matchup. They rank just 21st in yards per carry against (4.3) and have allowed the 9th-most rush yards to opposing RBs this year.
They also don’t get a ton of pressure on the QB, which should allow the Patriots to move the ball better through the air — and could also open up more red-zone opportunities for Stevenson who has taken over 75% of the RB touches for the Patriots inside the five-yard line. He’s not without risk, but Stevenson won’t be a heavy roster this week in DFS, making him a classic GPP target at RB.
Wide Receiver
Top End: Chris Godwin ($6,900), Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Detroit Lions
Tampa Bay takes on a Detroit defense that ranks third in yards per rush against on the season but is still somewhat gettable versus the pass. For the season, the Detroit secondary has allowed the 11th-most fantasy points and the second-most TDs to opposing WRs, overall. A lot of people expected Godwin to potentially act as the primary receiving option for Baker Mayfield ($5,400) this year but he’s been overshadowed by Mike Evans’ ($7,100) hot start.
Evans is playing this week but was on the injury report with a hamstring issue. Godwin finally got going in his last game (8-114-0) and likely will benefit from Evans being on the field and taking away primary coverage concerns. It’s a good spot to stay on the Bucs slot receiver and make him a core of Week 6 builds.
Top Value: Jonathan Mingo ($3,600), Carolina Panthers at Miami Dolphins
Mingo was inserted directly back into an every-down role in Week 5 against Detroit and promptly produced the best line of his career, posting hauling in 5-of-8 targets for 48 yards. The rookie has been slow to get going but had elite yards after catch metrics in college and overall has a 74% snap share this season.
With Bryce Young’s yards per attempt metrics improving and the Panthers trying to simplify things on offense, I would expect Mingo’s production to improve as the season wears on. The Dolphins have a weaker secondary and rank just 25th in defensive DVOA. Considering the pass-friendly game environment, Mingo will be involved and taking a flyer on him at $3,600 for DFS is well-warranted.
Tight End: Durham Smythe ($2,900) Miami Dolphins vs. Carolina Panthers
The Dolphins enter this week with the largest implied team total on the slate at 30.5. While they traditionally have a very condensed target share — mainly targeting their two elite WRs in Tyreek Hill ($9,300) and Jaylen Waddle ($7,600) — Smythe has started to get involved a little in the rotation.
The 28-year-old has been with Miami for six years now and has caught three or more passes in three of five games — and remains the only Dolphins TE with a catch in 2023. While he didn’t see a target last week, his snap rate (81%) and route rate (91%) remained high. When we’re looking under $3K for TE’s, Smythe sticks out for the simple fact that he is attached to the Dolphins’ offense and runs a lot of routes when he’s in the game. He hasn’t found the endzone yet but has gone over 40 yards twice and is playing the Panthers who have allowed the 12th most fantasy points to his position.
Defense/Special Teams: Chicago Bears ($2,500) vs. Minnesota Vikings
The Bears and Vikings will be playing in what is likely to be unsavory conditions. Winds of over 15mph are expected, rain is a possibility and temperatures are likely to be hovering around 50-55F — not ideal for an indoor QB like Kirk Cousins ($7,100). There is also the fact that the Bears are catching a huge break in this game and won’t have to face the league’s best WR, Justin Jefferson (hamstring).
Thus far, the Bears defense has been one of the worst in the league in most advanced metrics but could be getting some help back in the secondary with CB Kyler Gordon (hand), S Eddie Jackson (foot), and CB Jaylon Johnson (hamstring) all getting in limited practices on Thursday. From a DFS perspective, the Bears are insanely cheap at just $2,500 and are coming off their best game of the year, where they sacked Sam Howell ($5,500) five times. Their run defense has improved of late and they’ll face a middling Vikings’ rushing offense that managed just 3.9 yards per carry last week. Chicago makes for a nice punt play at D/ST in Week 6.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is wavegoodbye) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
