The Los Angeles Dodgers are in danger of being swept out of the playoffs after winning 100 games in the regular season and will turn to trade deadline acquisition Lance Lynn for a big road start in Game 3 of the National League Divisional Series against the Arizona Diamondbacks.
Los Angeles Dodgers (-148, 9.5) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Lynn hasn’t made a start since September 29 but enters having allowed three runs or fewer in his last four starts.
After Lynn posted a 6.47 ERA from the start of the season until late July with the Chicago White Sox, he lowered that to a 4.36 ERA with the Dodgers but has increased his fielding independent by nearly a full point (5.19 fielding independent with Chicago to a 6.16 fielding independent with Los Angeles).
The crux of Lynn’s issues this season at both stops has been allowing the ball to fly over the fence, surrendering 2.2 home runs per nine innings, making him a bit of an all-or-nothing pitcher considering he’s also averaging 9.4 strikeouts per nine innings.
While the Diamondbacks enter Wednesday having scored at least four runs in all four of their postseason games, their offense averaged the second-fewest runs per game of any National League team with less than 4.1 runs per game entering the playoffs.
The Diamondbacks also ranked 24th in the league in home runs per game at home this season with 80 home runs in 81 games, and if Lynn can get by with even a moderate amount of damage done, he has the league’s best bullpen post-All-Star break backing him up.
From July 1 until the end of the regular season, the Dodgers had a 2.36 ERA in the bullpen while no other team had better than a 2.84 ERA in that span, including the Diamondbacks.
During that span, the Diamondbacks ranked 18th with a 4.44 ERA in the bullpen but since September 1, they’ve been at their best with a 2.17 ERA between the regular season and postseason.
Rookie starting pitcher Brandon Pfaadt will look to set up the Diamondbacks bullpen for success as he had a 5.72 ERA with 2.1 home runs per nine innings but was a different pitcher after being recalled from the minor leagues after the All-Star break.
In Pfaadt’s 12 regular season starts after the All-Star break, he had a 4.22 ERA, 9.3 strikeouts and two walks per nine innings after posting a 9.82 ERA with 7.4 strikeouts and 3.5 walks per nine innings before being sent to the minor league level in June.
Despite the Dodgers ranking second among MLB teams in both runs and home runs per game this season, they enter Wednesday having scored three runs or fewer in eight of their last 15 games and two runs or fewer in three of their last four games.
With both bullpens being on top of their game, it should hold a pair of offenses that have experienced sporadic ups and downs in check.
The Play: Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks Under 9.5
