There’s a real chance this contest gets ugly. Time and time again in 2023, the Denver Broncos have proven to be one of the worst teams in football — specifically on the defensive side of the ball. That’s a bad formula in general, but it’s especially bad when you’re about to face-off with Patrick Mahomes ($12,800) and the high-powered Kansas City Chiefs.
How will all that translate to DFS? Let’s dive in and break it all down.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $1.5M Thursday Night Showdown [$500K to 1st] (CHI vs WAS)
SHOWDOWN STRATEGY
Captain’s Picks
Russell Wilson ($14,400 CP) – While the chatter surrounding Wilson and the Broncos is understandably bleak, the veteran pivot has performed better than you might expect through five weeks. Heck, at 21.3 DKFP per game, Wilson is actually averaging more fantasy points per contest than the aforementioned Mahomes. After a horrendous campaign under Nathaniel Hackett, Wilson’s numbers are basically back at their career norms, whether that be touchdown rate (6.7%), QB rating (106.1), DKFP per drop back (0.57) or adjusted net yards per pass attempt (7.0). Is some of his overall volume the result of Denver constantly being in a negative script? Of course. But that narrative isn’t likely to change as double-digit road underdogs in Week 6. I’d expect the Broncos to continue passing the ball at or around the 62.7% clip they’ve been operating at so far this season.
Isiah Pacheco ($14,100 CP) – This is going to be a popular move, but that doesn’t necessarily make it a wrong one. I mean, on paper, this is about as enticing a matchup as a running back could have. Broncos D/ST ($3,000) is currently surrendering the most opponent rushing yards per game at 187.6 — a number that is over 30 yards clear of the next-worst team. As if things couldn’t get any worse, that figure jumps to an eye-popping 251.7 yards per game going back to the beginning of Week 3. That’s a stretch where four different RBs produced over 25.0 DKFP against Denver, despite it only being a three-game sample. Woof. Meanwhile, Pacheco’s role only continues to grow in Kansas City. The former seventh-round pick has logged at least a 59% snap share in back-to-back weeks, and Pacheco’s 17 red zone carries are the most of any AFC running back. Put it all together and this is obviously a smash spot.
Value FLEX Plays
Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($3,400) – Trying to figure out which Chiefs wideout to play is a headache. Andy Reid cycles out his WR snaps like few other coaches, and with Travis Kelce ($11,000; ankle) absorbing a majority of the available targets, it doesn’t leave much for the secondary options on Kansas City’s roster. Still, I do find it at least a little odd that MVS is only the fourth-most expensive Chiefs receiver on Thursday. While it’s certainly true that Valdes-Scantling has yet to have much of an impact this season, he currently leads all those at his position in snap rate (63.2%) and total routes run (149). I’m fully aware that Rashee Rice ($6,400) has outperformed his veteran teammate each and every week, but do you really want to pay that much for a man who saw the field for only 20 snaps in Week 5? Doesn’t it also sort of feel like MVS is due for a big play?
Brandon Johnson ($1,200) – We’ve got a similar situation when it comes to the Broncos’ receving corps. By snap rate (48.8%) and total routes run (105), Johnson is quite clearly the WR3 on this roster — not Marvin Mims Jr. ($4,600). Is it my personal opinion that the man leading the NFL in yards per reception (24.6) and yards per route (4.82) should probably start seeing more time on the field? Sure. But that’s not what we’ve seen Sean Payton do so far with his personnel. In any case, Johnson’s also shown some big play ability through five weeks and has become a frequently used red zone target for Wilson. There are far worse places you could look for value in particular lineup builds.
Fades
Javonte Williams ($7,200) – Williams missed Week 5’s loss to the Jets with a quad issue, but he does not carry an injury designation for Thursday’s tilt after he practiced in full on both Tuesday and Wednesday. Still, even putting any snap restriction concerns aside, Williams has been underwhelming to start this season. The sophomore has yet to exceed even 10.0 DKFP in a game and his average of 0.61 DKFP per touch is the 10th-lowest mark among all RBs with at least 30 carries. It’s also projects to be a bad script for a running back to hit his ceiling, not to mention Chiefs D/ST ($5,600) is conceding the sixth-fewest DKFP per contest to opposing RBs. This is an all around avoid.
THE OUTCOME
Kansas City hasn’t looked all that fantastic outside of bludgeoning Chicago in front of Taylor Swift, yet I think Thursday is the night the team — the offense specifically — finds its footing. Denver is giving up the most yards (450.6) and points (36.2) per game through five weeks. The Broncos’ defense ranks dead-last in the NFL by DVOA. Mahomes and Reid should be able to put up 40 in their sleep.
Final Score: Kansas City 41, Denver 24
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $1.5M Thursday Night Showdown [$500K to 1st] (CHI vs WAS)
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is theglt13) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
