Running back strength of schedule points to Isiah Pacheco and others as trade targets

We are now moving into Week 6 of the NFL season and it’s time to make some moves to secure your standing in your fantasy football leagues or to help you dig out of a hole. And how will we do that you ask? By checking out the strength of schedule for running backs using run defense DVOA.

Since we are finishing up Week 5, we are also using a small sample size for the DVOA numbers, but they are still my favorite way to judge how well a defense is playing against the run and pass. DVOA is now over at FTN Fantasy if you want to see the raw numbers.

As with any analysis using analytics to suss out good or bad running back matchups, you do have to take into consideration many factors, including offensive line play, usage and ability.

Isaiah Pacheco, RB, Chiefs

Pacheco has put together a strong start to the 2023 season, as he ran the ball 55 times for 270 yards and two touchdowns, while adding 90 receiving yards on 10 receptions from 12 targets. He’s also been getting more work each week, with him seeing 23 touches in their Week 4 win over the Jets.

If you are looking to acquire Pacheco in a trade, he likely won’t come cheap, but when you look at the Chiefs schedule, it sure makes sense to go after him. His next four matchups before their bye will be vs. Broncos, vs. Chargers, at Broncos, vs. Dolphins. Those teams have run defense DVOA rankings of 31, 26, 31, and 29.

Aaron Jones, RB, Packers

Green Bay has just one opponent who has a better than 17th ranked run DVOA, while also getting one of the best (at this point) fantasy playoff schedules in the league with the Panthers and Vikings in Weeks 16 and 17.

Jones has been dealing with a hamstring injury, but appears to be all the way back this week. The Packers have a bye in Week 6, so if a team with Jones needs bye week help and you are sitting pretty, I’d send out an offer then.

Dameon Pierce, RB, Texans

Pierce has had a slow start to the season and sharing work in the receiving game has hurt, but we saw him assert himself in Week 4 against the Steelers and we’e also seen QB C.J. Stroud step up and play very well so far in his rookie season. And on top of that, he has a nice stretch of games in the middle of the season.

Pierce is tricky though, as his fantasy playoff/championship schedule is truly awful. If you can find a way to rent his services from Week 8 through Week 14, you could have an efficient turnaround on your fantasy investment.