After two long days of waiting, the Divisional round is finally here — beginning with the Texas Rangers and Baltimore Orioles squaring off in Game 1 on Saturday afternoon. First pitch from Camden Yards in Baltimore is set for 1:00 p.m. ET, and the game will be broadcast on FS1. Texas sends Dane Dunning to the mound, while Kyle Bradish gets the ball for the O’s.
Baltimore enters as -142 favorites on the moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the Rangers at +120. The run total is set at 8.
Rangers vs. Orioles ALDS Game 1 picks: Saturday, October 7
Injury report
Rangers
Out: SP Max Scherzer (shoulder), SP Jon Gray (forearm), RP Jonathan Hernandez (lat)
Orioles
Out: RP Felix Bautista (Tommy John)
Starting pitchers
Dane Dunning vs. Kyle Bradish
This certainly isn’t a matchup that anyone would’ve expected in Game 1 of a Divisional series when the season started, but both of these righties have earned their place here. Dunning filled Jacob deGrom’s spot in the Texas rotation, and while he had a bumpy second half overall, he was great when the Rangers needed him most — delivering three quality starts (including seven shutout innings on the road against the Angels in the season’s final week) over his last four. After pitching on three days’ rest last Sunday, he’s had a full five days to rest up for this start as Jordan Montgomery and Nathan Eovaldi pitched in the Wild Card series in Tampa. Dunning made one appearance against the O’s this year, pitching four one-hit innings in relief in the first week of the season.
A bruised foot suffered in his first start against these very same Rangers sidetracked Bradish’s 2023 season before it even got going. Once healthy, though, the righty took off, becoming one of the more underrated pitchers in the game while finishing third in the AL in ERA. He was particularly lights-out in the second half, with a sparkling 2.34 ERA and 10 quality starts over 14 outings since the All-Star break. Bradish’s fastball remains a real question mark, but both his slider (.168 BA against, 36.4% whiff rate) and curveball (.142, 35.6%) have been elite. In addition to his abbreviated early outing against Texas, he faced the Rangers one other time this year, firing 6.2 innings of one-run ball in a no-decision in late May.
Over/Under pick
This is a tough call, with two very deep and dangerous lineups going up against pitchers that have been throwing the ball well lately. I’m backing the under in this spot, though: Bradish has been a walking quality start for months now, and I think he’ll be able to give Baltimore at least five or six solid innings. That puts a lot of pressure on Baltimore’s offense to hit this total, and after totals of four and eight in Texas’ two games in the Wild Card round, I think we’re in for another relatively low-scoring affair.
Pick: Under 8
Moneyline pick
These lineups are very similar, and these bullpens are both question marks — especially with Bautista out of the picture for Baltimore. I trust Bradish just a bit more than Dunning, though, so I’m backing Baltimore here, especially with a revved-up home crowd.
Pick: Orioles -142
