The Cinderella Arizona Diamondbacks look to shock the baseball world one more time as they kick off Game 1 of their NLDS against the NL West champion Los Angeles Dodgers on Saturday night. First pitch from Dodger Stadium is set for 9:20 p.m. ET. Merrill Kelly (12-8, 3.29 ERA) will get the ball for the visitors, while Los Angeles will turn to Clayton Kershaw (13-5, 2.46) for the 32nd time in the postseason.
The Dodgers enter as -198 favorites on the moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook, while the D-backs come in at +164. The run total is set at 8.
Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers NLDS Game 1 picks: Saturday, October 7
Injury report
Diamondbacks
Out: OF Jake McCarthy (oblique)
Dodgers
Out: RP Yency Almonte (knee)
Starting pitchers
Merrill Kelly vs. Clayton Kershaw
Game 1 is a no-brainer for Torey Lovullo: With Zac Gallen pitching Game 2 in Milwaukee on Wednesday night and Kelly having not pitched since the final weekend of the regular season, Arizona will give the ball to its co-ace on Saturday. Kelly has been one of the most underrated pitchers in baseball this season, with 10 of his 14 starts in the second half involving two or fewer runs allowed. He has had mixed results against the Dodgers in four starts this season, though — he fired six shutout innings against L.A. on August 9 but was roughed up for seven runs on 12 hits over five innings on August 29.
Kershaw’s been limited by shoulder trouble at various points this season, and his fastball velocity is greatly diminished. He’s still one of the greatest pitchers of all-time, though, and he’ll be an awfully tough nut to crack in October — he hasn’t allowed more than two runs in a start since May. Of course, he also hasn’t pitched past the fifth inning since July, and it remains to be seen just how hard Dave Roberts will ride his ace in this spot. He pitched against Arizona three times this season, allowing one run over six innings on Opening Day, four runs in six innings the following week and then one run over five innings at the end of August.
Over/Under pick
Despite some opportunistic offense to chase Corbin Burnes and Freddy Peralta in the Wild Card round, I have a hard time believing that Arizona will do a ton of damage against Kershaw in this spot. That puts a ton of pressure on the Dodgers offense, and while Los Angeles roughed Kelly up the last time they faced him, the righty has been largely great this season. With two rested bullpens at the ready, I’ll take the under here.
Pick: Under 8
Moneyline pick
Yeah, I’m not picking against a rested Kershaw — not to mention Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman. The Dodgers have been waiting for this game for a full week now, and I think they come out swinging and put Game 1 to bed.
Pick: Dodgers -198
