After a disappointing 2-4 record in Week 4, we move forward to Week 5 of the NFL season on DraftKings Sportsbook, where hopefully we can do much better than last week and find some winners. The Chicago Bears got things off to a surprising start, beating the Commanders in dominating fashion. With 13 games on the weekend slate, there should be plenty of opportunities to find some great prop bets, and below are some of my favorites.
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OVER Picks
WR A.J. Brown Over 74.5 Rec Yds (-115)
A.J. Brown has been playing some of his best football over the past two weeks, putting up 306 yards and two touchdowns. I think this carries over to Week 5, where Brown and the Eagles will look to improve to 5-0. Brown has reached the over on this total in three out of four games so far, and in the only game where it didn’t hit, he was only targeted six times. In the three games where he has hit the total, he was targeted an average of 12.3 times per game. If the Eagles feed him the rock, the over should be no problem for him.
K Jake Moody Over 1.5 FG Made (+100)
Kicker prop! Moody leads the NFL in field goals made in 2023, with nine of them in four games. He has gone over this total in three of the 49ers’ four games so far and is averaging 2.25 field goals made per game. The Cowboys have the fourth-best percentage against red zone touchdowns conceded, so San Francisco facing off against a team who force a lot of field goals will be massive for this prop. Moody has yet to miss a field goal in 2023, and long may that streak continue.
RB James Conner Over 60.5 Rush Yds (-130)
Conner has gone over this total in three of his four games so far in 2023 and has snuck his way into a tie for third atop the NFL rushing leaders. He has been a bright spark for the Cardinals offense, averaging 79.5 rush yards per game at 5.1 yards per carry so far this season. The Bengals have been way below par against the run, giving up the second-most rush yards per game in the league. I think the over hits with ease for Conner.
UNDER Picks
RB Dalvin Cook Under 24.5 Rush Yds (-115)
This may seem like a scarily low number for Cook, but his stats in 2023 tell a different story. He has only gone over this total in one of his four games, and that was Week 1 against the Bills, where he received 13 carries. Over the past three weeks, he has been seeing the ball less, with only an average of 5.6 carries per game. Earlier this week, Robert Saleh announced that Breece Hall will no longer be on a snap count, which could mean even fewer touches for Cook. When he has gotten the ball this year, he has been ineffective, averaging only 2.5 yards per carry.
RB Kyren Williams Under 57.5 Rush Yds (-145)
Williams has been the primary back for the Rams this year, but this week’s total seems a little too high. The Rams are facing off against the Eagles, who currently have the second-best rush defense in the league, only giving up 63 rushing yards per game. Williams has only gone over this total in one of their four games, and he received 25 carries. In the other three games where he went under this total, he averaged 13 carries per game. I think the Rams will still attempt to run the ball, but it’s hard to imagine a scenario where Williams gets another 25 carries against a defense like Philadelphia.
QB Joe Burrow Under 1.5 Pass TD’s (-115)
If you told me in Week 1 that just a month later, I would be taking a Joe Burrow under, I wouldn’t have believed you. Yet, here we are in Week 5, and Burrow has still only thrown two touchdowns in the entire season. He has gone under this total in three of four games and has fewer touchdown passes than Desmond Ridder, Zach Wilson and Kenny Pickett this season. Burrow’s calf injury seems to be playing a factor in his performance, and in this instance, I think the under is definitely the smart play.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is ciarandoyle77) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skills and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
