Picks, predictions, analysis, odds to win Hart Trophy in 2023-24 NHL season

The 2023-24 NHL regular season is almost underway and it’s time to start picking out which players you want to bet on to win MVP. That group of players may not be very large when looking at the odds. Edmonton Oilers C Connor McDavid ran away with the Hart Trophy as League MVP last season, scoring 153 points, the most in a single season since the mid-90s. That has McDavid firmly as the favorite to win back-to-back MVPs, a feat we haven’t seen since Alexander Ovechkin did it from 2007-09. Below we’re going to look at the odds to win NHL MVP on DraftKings Sportsbook and give some analysis.

2023-24 NHL Predictions: Hart Trophy picks

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McDavid comes in at -105 to win MVP, the best odds among all players. He also has a pretty big gap between the player with the second-best odds, Avalanche C Nathan MacKinnon at +900. Just based off of history, ignoring the players for a second, the odds of McDavid repeating are pretty slim. Since 1923, a player has repeated as MVP 12 times (keep in mind, Wayne Gretzky won eight straight MVPs from 1979 to 1987). In about 100 years of the award, a little over 10 percent of the time a player will repeat if we remove The Great One. It’s not crazy to think of McDavid in the same light as Gretzky but it’s also a very different hockey game in 2023.

With that said, McDavid should almost assuredly lead the NHL in points and help Edmonton clinch a playoff berth. If both those things happen, he’ll at the very least be a Hart finalist. From there, it’s just figuring out if another player can A) do something spectacular this season or B) really lift their team to the top of the NHL. So with that, let’s take a look at the other candidates.

Leon Draisaitl did win an MVP despite being on the same team as McDavid and getting a big boost from him. Despite that, it feels like if McDavid has more points than Draisaitl it’s difficult to make a case for him. There doesn’t feel like a point to betting Draisaitl until at least a few weeks, maybe a month into the season.

If there’s ever a time for MacKinnon to win his first Hart, it feels like this season. The Avalanche loaded up and have more depth. That should only elevate MacKinnon and finishing with around 110-120 points while helping Colorado finish among the top teams could be more than enough to win the award. The Avalanche have a better chance of competing for the Presidents’ Trophy than Edmonton. It really comes down to health and production.

Matthew Tkachuk is very interesting for a few reasons. One, he was a finalist last season and is at +1200 to win this time around, fourth-best odds. The Panthers barely made the playoffs last season. If Florida finishes higher and Tkachuk produces at a similar clip, he SHOULD be a finalist again, you’d think, right? The Panthers bring back the same core and have some confidence and momentum after last season’s Cup run.

Auston Matthews feels like a fade. The Maple Leafs could be the best team in the NHL and Matthews could score 50-60 goals and it still feels like McDavid or Tkachuk or MacKinnon might have a better case. Toronto already has high expectations. Plus, Matthews won an MVP a few seasons ago on that whole 60-goal campaign. Then McDavid came out last season and scored 64 goals without breaking a sweat. Matthews would have to do something miraculous, like score 65-70 goals to win MVP it seems. That may be tough to do now that the roster has more help.

That brings us to my favorite pick: New Jersey Devils C Jack Hughes. The Devils top center broke out last season with 43 goals and 99 points to help the Devils get back to the playoffs and win a series. He broke the franchise scoring record and will likely continue to break his own record the next decade or so. This season, the Devils have a better roster that is capable of winning the East and Presidents’ Trophy. New Jersey will have a full season of Timo Meier, a new top-6 forward in Tyler Toffoli and even youngster Alexander Holtz could make the jump and score some goals. The big improvement we could see for Hughes is on the power play.

In 78 games, Hughes had 31 power-play points, around a third of his total points for the season. That was for a 13th-ranked PP unit. If Toffoli, Meier and Luke Hughes can help improve the PP, we should see Jack Hughes’ numbers go up in that category. If McDavid regresses a bit down to around 130-140 points, if Hughes can get into the top-5 in points and help the Devils win the East and finish with the best record, that feels like enough to get him the Hart.

Dark Horses

Once you get down the board a bit, there’s not much that stands out. There are two forwards who could rise into the Hart conversation: Tage Thompson and Jason Robertson. For Thompson, the Buffalo Sabres feel like a team that should make a jump into the postseason. It’s been 12 seasons since Buffalo made the playoffs but we saw a lot of progress in 2022-23. Thompson, like Hughes, went from 68 points to 47 goals and 94 points last season. It feels like Thompson has an outside shot at leading the NHL in goals while also helping the Sabres reach the playoffs for the first time since 2011. At +2500, getting on board before the season makes sense.

For Robertson, similar deal in that the Dallas Stars’ right wing has a legit shot at leading the NHL in goals. He went from 79 points to 109 points last season with 46 goals on sub-15 percent shooting. Robertson also helped lead the Stars to the Western Conference Final. Considering what the Avalanche have done this offseason, it would be pretty remarkable to see the Stars finish atop the Central or even the Western Conference. It’s entirely possible. Also at +2500, Robertson feels like a good value bet to win MVP before the season begins.

A few other names that stick out are Avalanche D Cale Makar at +3000 and Vancouver Canucks C Elias Pettersson at +6000. Makar could duplicate what Erik Karlsson did to win the Norris Trophy last season but while also playing on the best team in the NHL. Pettersson should be in the top-10 in points by the end of this season and getting the Canucks back to the playoffs could give him an interesting case for MVP.

If you want to throw a few dart. Sidney Crosby at +7500 and Brady Tkachuk at +7500. Also, why not Johnny Gaudreau at +10000?