After nearly two decades of misery, the Minnesota Twins finally snapped their record 18-game postseason losing streak, riding two Royce Lewis homers and a solid Pablo Lopez start to a 3-1 win over the Toronto Blue Jays in Game 1 of this best-of-three Wild Card series. Now the Jays need a win to keep their season alive, and they’ll send righty — and former Twin — Jose Berrios (11-12, 3.65 ERA) to the mound to do it against Minnesota’s Sonny Gray (8-8, 2.79). First pitch from Target Field is set for 4:38 p.m. ET and will be broadcast on ESPN.
The Twins enter as -142 favorites on the moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the Jays at +120. The run total is set at 7.5.
Blue Jays-Twins Wild Card Game 2 picks: Wednesday, October 4
Injury report
Blue Jays
Out: C Danny Jansen (finger)
Twins
Doubtful: OF/DH Byron Buxton (knee)
Starting pitchers
Jose Berrios vs. Sonny Gray
You can bet Berrios will be amped up to face the team the drafted him in the first round way back in 2012, and with whom he spent the first five-plus seasons — and made his only two All-Star appearances — of his MLB career. After a rough first full season in Toronto last year, the righty has bounced back in a big way in 2023: He allowed a combined 12 runs over his first two starts, then settled in and allowed three or fewer in 22 of his final 30 outings. A switch from emphasizing a four-seamer to emphasizing a sinker was a huge help, as it allowed the righty to avoid barrels more effectively and let his nasty slurve shine. After a hiccup in August, he finished strong in September (3.41 ERA, 38 Ks in 31.2 innings) and he was brilliant in his one start against the Twins this year, allowing just four hits across 5.2 scoreless innings.
In a world where Gerrit Cole doesn’t exist, Gray likely would’ve gotten a lot more Cy Young heat — and he’ll still get plenty of down-ballot votes as it is. The righty looked like arguably the best pitcher in baseball over the first couple of months, and while he slowed down a little bit as the summer progressed, he caught fire again in August and September, with a 2.67 ERA in the second half and 10 quality starts in his last 13 (it likely would’ve been 11, but Minnesota eased up on his workload in his meaningless final start last week). Gray’s recipe is pretty simple: When he has both his slider (.097 BA against, 41.3% whiff rate) and curveball (.257, 28.2%) working, he’s darn near unhittable. In the past, his feel tended to come and go, but he’s been remarkably consistent this season. He faced the Jays once this year, allowing one run on five hits and two walks over five-plus innings of work.
Over/Under pick
These are two all-or-nothing offenses, as we saw during Tuesday’s 3-1 final. We’ve got two more very good righties on the mound on Wednesday, so I’m going back to the under well one more time — Gray has been cooking of late, while Berrios dominated this Minnesota lineup the last time he saw them. Plus, Toronto should have a quick hook with their righty if things go south, with Chris Bassitt waiting in the wings in the early innings.
Pick: Under 7.5
Moneyline pick
It’s always dangerous backing Toronto’s offense — you never quite know which version you’re going to get, especially against a tough righty like Gray. But the Jays made Gray work the one time they faced him this year, and Berrios’ success against righties (.616 OPS allowed) has me optimistic he can handle guys like Royce Lewis, Carlos Correa and the rest of a Twins lineup that’s vulnerable to striking out against right-handed pitching. With their backs against the wall, I’ll take the Jays to force a Game 3, as these teams are too evenly matched to have this much juice on the moneyline.
Pick: Blue Jays +120
