Week 5. It’s time for the schedule to include byes, so remove the Browns, Chargers, Seahawks and Buccaneers from the viewing pie. Is it too early for teams to start stalking Caleb Williams in order to wave hi? Regardless, Sunday’s slate will continue to supply, those fantasy goodies that we glorify, but we must be surgical, like trimming the leaves of a bonsai. Hopefully, the puzzle does not mystify. Just in case, consult your local rabbi. You never know how the gods will reply! Before I say goodbye, may all your contests end in the green, causing DraftKings to notify. That would definitely satisfy and eclipse the most soothing lullaby.
On DraftKings Sportsbook, there are four games with a total of at least 45 points: JAX/BUR (48.5), NYG/MIA (48.5), PHI/LAR (50.5) and KC/MIN (53). There is one game with a total below 40 – BAL/PIT (38.5). There is one double-digit favorite – MIA -11 over NYG but DET is 9.5 favorites over CAR. Five games are within a field goal: ATL -2 over HOU, NE -1 over NO, TEN -1 ove IND, CIN -3 over ARI and DEN -2 over NYJ. PIT, IND, LAR, ARI and MIN are home dogs.
These are my early thoughts, but much of my lineup construction will depend on projected ownership numbers at the end of the week. That said, here are my studs and values for Sunday’s main DraftKings fantasy football slate.
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Quarterback
Stud
Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins vs. New York Giants, $7,100 — Both the Dolphins and Chiefs are in similar spots, in that the defenses they are facing are first and second in blitz percentage yet still have difficulty garnering pressure. Yum yum.
The KC/MIN game has the higher total and the likelihood of a back-and-forth affair is elevated. That said, the ownership will be very high in that game and there is a chance, albeit a small one, that the game doesn’t go nuclear. It’s within the range of outcomes that the Vikings have success running the ball and playing more coverage on defense instead of going blitz-happy.
Miami showed that they are willing to sweep the leg in their Week 3 thrashing of Denver. Tua did only throw 26 times in that one, but he still racked up 31.36 DKFP, the second time over 30 DKFP this season. Mahomes hasn’t exceeded 25 DKFP yet this season.
After a tough loss to the Bills in Week 4, I think the Dolphins will want to get their offense back on track. They just have too much speed and too many playmakers for the Giants’ defense to handle. By the way, it’s projected to be 86 degrees in Miami with the chance of showers, which means brutal humidity. Have fun Giants defenders.
Other Options – Patrick Mahomes ($8,200), Joe Burrow ($6,200)
Value
Josh Dobbs, Arizona Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Bengals, $5,200 — Dobbs scored 2.98 DKFP in Week 1, but let’s give a brother a break, as he literally just joined the team a few weeks earlier. Since then, he’s put up 25.22, 17.06 and 23.4 DKFP, and these weren’t against cupcake defenses. Fine, the Giants are cupcakes but the Cowboys and 49ers are no joke. The Cardinals’ offense has been methodical and predicated on getting the ball out quickly. Dobbs has only been sacked 4.6% of the time, which is eighth-best in the league. He has also not thrown an interception. For fantasy, though, what really entices us is the rushing prowess. He’s rushed for at least 40 yards in each of the last three games. The Bengals could have some success offensively in this one, which could keep the Cardinals from turtling up.
Other Options – Zach Wilson ($4,900)
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Running Back
Stud
David Montgomery, Detroit Lions vs. Carolina Panthers, $6,600 — In Week 2, the snap count for Montgomery plummeted from 79% to 45%, as Jahmyr Gibbs ($5,900) was more involved. The game script called for a more pass-centric offense as the Lions lost, 31-37 to Seattle. In Week 4, Montgomery went back to receiving 71% of the snaps and rushed 32 times for 121 yards with three touchdowns as Detroit was in control of this game. He also caught two targets for 20 yards. Week 5 calls for a similar game script, as the Lions are 9.5-point favorites at home. Montgomery leads the teams with 18 red zone opportunities on the season.
Other Options – Bijan Robinson ($7,700), Joe Mixon ($6,400), Raheem Mostert ($6,200), De’Von Achane ($6,100), De’Andre Swift ($6,000)
Value
James Conner, Arizona Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Bengals, $5,800 – The Cardinals are 3-point home dogs to the Bengals. Bow wow wow yippee yo yippee yeah! Who let the dogs out? Whoop. Whoop. The Bengals should have some success through the air in this one, and their defense is good, but the Cardinals have been very impressive this season. Connor leads the backfield and should garner a 70 percent-ish snap share while dominating the goal line work. The Bengals have allowed the second-most rushing yards on the season with an average of 5.1 yards per carry.
Other Options – Breece Hall ($5,400), Jaleel McLaughlin ($5,000)
Wide Receiver
Stud
Tyreek Hill, Miami Dolphins vs. New York Giants, $9,000 — Hill was bottled up for three receptions on five targets for 58 yards last week. I’d expect him to get back on track against a Giants team that doesn’t have the personnel to match up to this Dolphins offense. New York has allowed the 10th-most YAC and blitz at the second-highest rate, but is only 22nd in pressure rate.
Other Options – Justin Jefferson ($9,400), Ja’Marr Chase ($7,900), Jaylen Waddle ($7,500), Michael Pittman Jr. ($6,400), Garrett Wilson ($6,000)
Value
Josh Downs, Indianapolis Colts vs. Tennessee Titans, $3,700 – The Titans lead the league in allowing only 2.9 yards per rushing attempt, so the path of least resistance for the Colts is through the air. While the efficiency hasn’t been great for Anthony Richardson ($7,000), he is adept at going through his reads and attacking defenses through the air. The coaching staff has faith in him and wants to continue his development, so they do not try and hide their franchise quarterback. In Week 1, Richardson attempted 37 passes. As for Downs, he primarily lines up in the slot and has played in 70 to 80% of the snaps so far this season. He is also second on the team with 27 targets.
Other Options – Adam Thielen ($5,100), Marquise Brown ($5,000), Michael Wilson ($3,700), Wan’Dale Robinson ($3,000)
Tight End
Stud
Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs at Minnesota Vikings, $7,600 – Kelce has been underwhelming to start this season. While he’s scored double-digit DKFP in all three games, he has yet to exceed 20 DKFP. I think he’s been spending a little too much time with a certain someone whose name rhymes with Baylor Thrift. Anyways, Kelce is the number one target for Mahomes and it’s just a matter of time before he explodes. This game carries the highest total on the slate and it’s well within the range of outcomes that it turns into a back-and-forth affair.
Other Options – TJ Hockenson ($6,500), Mark Andrews ($5,500), Sam LaPorta ($5,000)
Value
Jonnu Smith, Atlanta Falcons vs. Houston Texans, $2,900 – The Falcons utilized the fourth overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft for a generational talent at tight end. Yet, in the year of our Lord 2023, it is Smith who is garnering 55% of the snaps, has one fewer reception and one more red zone target than said generational talent. What a time to be alive. That said, it is what it is and there’s no denying that Smith has six, eight and six targets in the last three contests, resulting in 8.7, 8.7 and 15.5 DKFP.
Other Options – Tyler Higbee ($4,100), Zach Ertz ($3,500), Tyler Conklin ($3,200)
Defense/Special Teams
Stud
Dolphins D/ST vs. New York Giants, $3,600 – Did you see what the Seahawks defense did to this Giants offense on Monday night? 11 sacks, a fumble recovery and two interceptions, with one of those being a pick-six. I wouldn’t expect the same kind of performance from the Dolphins, and it’s a defense, so anything can happen. That said, the situation sets up very well for them. The weather is going to be hot and muggy with the Dolphins offense projected to put up a ton of points. That means Danny Dimes will have to drop back and be aggressive, which makes New Yorkers cringe at the thought. New York is 31st in pass blocking according to PFF while Miami blitzes at the 11th-highest rate and is 12th in pressure rate.
Other Options – Lions D/ST ($3,800)
Value
Patriots D/ST vs. New Orleans Saints, $3,100 – The Patriots blitz at the third-highest rate and are 11th in pressure rate. Derek Carr ($5,300) is 26th in passer rating under pressure. Ruh roh.
Other Options – Chiefs D/ST ($3,300), Jets D/ST ($3,100)
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is sontzu) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
