Here’s who we think will win NHL MVP in 2023-24

Do we even need to talk about the Hart Trophy? We’re going to anyway, and we’ll cover Connor McDavid plenty. But it’s starting to feel like his award to lose each season. Last year, McDavid set a career-high with 153 points, 64 goals and 89 assists in all 82 games. The Edmonton Oilers center enters 2023-24 as the betting favorite by a wide margin. Is McDavid going to run away with the Hart again? Will anyone contest the greatest hockey player on the planet for a second straight MVP? We investigate.

2023-24 NHL predictions: MVP picks

Hart Trophy Odds

Connor McDavid

McJesus is -105 to win MVP and the second-best odds go to Nathan MacKinnon at +900. It’s a pretty insane gap but one that only the best can achieve. It will be difficult to rival McDavid’s point total but subsequently it will be difficult for McDavid to duplicate a 150+ point season. The year prior McDavid finished as a finalist for MVP after leading the NHL in points with 123. Auston Matthews scoring 60 goals was enough to beat out McDavid. Then all McDavid did was go out and score 64 goals with relative ease. It starts to beg the question: Is there a point to pick anyone but McDavid to win MVP right now? The books are certainly enticing all of us to think about another player winning. We’ll go through some of those options now.

Everyone else

Below you’ll find the group of players that should be attempting to compete with McDavid for MVP. MacKinnon, Leon Draisaitl and Matthew Tkachuk have the next best odds while Matthews is +1600. If you go down the board, there are a few interesting bets. New Jersey Devils C Jack Hughes is the most appealing so let’s go over him a bit.

First, the Devils have the second-best odds to win the Cup at +900, tied with the Maple Leafs and just behind the Hurricanes. The Devils came just short of beating out the Hurricanes for first place in the Metro Division last season. New Jersey added F Tyler Toffoli to the forward group and he should help the power play, which was middle of the League last season. Defenseman Luke Hughes will start in the top-4 and is a Calder candidate playing with his brother Jack. The Devils are +550 to win the Presidents’ Trophy as the top team in the NHL. It’s very possible New Jersey is the best team in the NHL at the end of the season.

If the Devils are, it’s because of Jack Hughes. He was finally able to stay healthy and broke out in 2022-23 with 99 points in 78 games. Hughes finished eighth in Hart Trophy voting, was top-10 in goals scored and top-15 in points. The Devils went from one of the worst teams in the NHL to one of the best and Hughes led the charge. Now, the Devils are legit Cup contenders. Hughes broke the franchise’s scoring record last season and could challenge for most points if the Devils PP becomes elite.

Tkachuk will be a trendy bet after the Florida Panthers’ run to the Cup this past season. He had 109 points and was a Hart finalist along with McDavid and David Pastrnak. The Panthers bring back the same roster for the most part, a roster that barely made the playoffs in 2022-23. Still, any improvement points-wise for Florida should help Tkachuk. If he gets to or surpasses his point total from last season, he’ll be worth a bet early on.

My favorite bets down the board a little include Jason Robertson, Tage Thompson and Cale Makar. The Avalanche top defenseman missed 22 games last season. Had he played at a point-per-game pace over the course of a full season, that would have gotten him around 86-90 points. Despite missing those games, he was still a Norris finalist. This Avs team could be very good after adding almost an entirely new forward group. Ryan Johansen, Tomas Tatar, Miles Wood, Ross Colton and Jonathan Drouin should help solve Colorado’s depth issues from 2023-24. The issue with Makar for Hart is history. The last defenseman to win MVP was Chris Pronger back in 1999-00. Before Pronger is was Bobby Orr. But if any defenseman can do it, it’s Makar, who is a future Hall of Famer.

Verdict

Chances are McDavid will win. It’s not bad to get money on him at -105 because there’s a chance he hits a streak and starts to take off with the points lead. Unless Edmonton’s season tanks and the team misses the playoffs, McDavid should at the very least be a Hart finalist. The only approach you could change to betting McDavid for Hart is waiting a week or two, his odds could adjust a bit. They shouldn’t move much for at least a month or so. I think it’s more likely someone keeps pace with McDavid early on and could drop his odds to a better number. Or once they start moving in his direction, get on so you don’t lose out much.

Personally, I’m betting Hughes to win MVP. If the Devils win the Presidents’ Trophy and Hughes gets to around 110-120 points with 50+ goals, MVP is very realistic. Hughes only had 31 power-play points last season. That number could increase this year and get the center into the top-5 in scoring in the NHL.

Thompson and Robertson each have a chance to lead the NHL in goals this season. Both Thompson and Robertson finished in the top-10 in goals last season. Tage was 38th in shooting percentage and Robertson wasn’t even in the top-50 in that category. Both are talented enough to make a few percentage point jump and have a shot at the League lead. It also helps the Sabres and Stars should both be in contention for the postseason and both teams could over-perform in the regular season.