The Los Angeles Rams blew a 23-point lead in Week 4 against the Indianapolis Colts before winning in overtime courtesy of a touchdown from receiver Puka Nacua. It was the rookie’s first touchdown of the season, and caps off a ridiculous four-week stretch for the BYU product.
Nacua has been a revelation for fantasy football managers, with 501 yards and a score on 39 receptions through four games. He has 52 targets, which is 32.5% of the overall targets in the offense. He’s the No. 4 scoring receiver in PPR formats, ahead of stars like Stefon Diggs, Davante Adams and A.J. Brown. All this has happened in Cooper Kupp’s absence. The Rams star receiver went on injured reserve with a hamstring injury and missed the first four games, but head coach Sean McVay said Kupp will return to practice ahead of Week 5. So where does that leave Nacua in fantasy football?
Let’s start this by saying you shouldn’t drop Nacua in fantasy football. I personally picked up the receiver from waivers after Week 1, and there’s no reason to just dump him back there without seeing how things play out. Hamstring injuries can be tricky and there’s no guarantee Kupp stays healthy the rest of the season. Nacua has replaced Kupp in this offense from a target share standpoint but the Rams aren’t plugging him into the same role. Nacua is making plays on the ball in tight windows and has established a rapport with Matthew Stafford. He’s unlikely to be taken off the field completely.
Here’s a look at Kupp’s stat lines from 2019-22.
2019: 94 receptions, 134 targets, 1,161 yards, 10 touchdowns (21.2% target share)
2020: 92 receptions, 124 targets, 974 yards, 3 touchdowns (21% target share)
2021: 145 receptions, 191 targets, 1,947 yards, 16 touchdowns (31.7% target share)
2022: 75 receptions, 98 targets, 812 yards, 6 touchdowns (18.9% target share)
Kupp only played nine games in the 2022 season. If we extrapolate his numbers, we get 141 receptions, 185 targets and 1,533 yards. Basically, Kupp is going to be a big part of this offense when he’s on the field. However, that doesn’t mean the Rams can’t sustain two receivers in this system. Here’s a look at notable target shares for LA’s other receivers from 2019-22.
2019: Robert Woods (22%), Tyler Higbee (14.1%)
2020: Robert Woods (21.9%), Josh Reynolds (13.7%)
2021: Van Jefferson (14.8%), Tyler Higbee (14.1%)
2022: Tyler Higbee (20.9%), Ben Skowronek (11.8%)
The 2022 numbers are not a great barometer since Kupp missed time, but the point is there are secondary players in McVay’s offense who can contribute. Nacua appears to have overtaken both Van Jefferson and Tutu Atwell in the wide receiver pecking order, so his only real competition for target share is Higbee. We saw how that went from 2019-21. There’s also a scenario where Nacua is the next Woods, actually seeing more targets than Kupp.
The Rams play the Eagles in Week 5 and even if Kupp is good to go for the contest, Nacua should be in lineups. We could see Kupp on some sort of snap count restriction in his return, which means Nacua should hold slightly more value. We’ll also get a better indication of how the Rams will operate with Kupp back. Fantasy managers can feel confident about Nacua’s outlook, even if he becomes the No. 2 receiver in this LA offense.