Kevin McCarthy odds improve to be Speaker of the House during 12th floor vote

Update 3:05 p.m. McCarthy is down to needing to flip three of six! He moved all of one vote on Ballot No. 13, which was Andy Harris of Maryland. Also Maryland Democrat David Trone is back from surgery, and after missing a ballot he’s back to get Hakeem Jeffries back to his usual 212 in this.

McCarthy: 214
Jeffries: 212
Others: 6

The markets think McCarthy does get there: He’s at .83 to finally become Speaker at PredictIt, with Scalise down to .08.

Update 2:00 p.m. McCarthy is down to needing to flip three of the seven Republican holdouts against him.

The 12th ballot results:

McCarthy: 213:
Jeffries: 211
Others: 7

So he seems closer than ever. But as we head to the 13th, can he get three “Never Kevin” voters over the line?

PredictIt thinks so. He’s at his highest number there since this process started at .79. Steve Scalise is at .12, with no one else cracking .03.

And at American Civics Exchange: McCarthy: 85%, Scalise: 10%, Field: 5%

Update 12:57 p.m. As we’re a bit more than halfway through the 12th vote, it looks like McCarthy has picked up about six votes, but will still be short of a win. Keep in mind there are three McCarthy-voting Republicans that aren’t in attendance today, so it looks like 216 will be the magic number today.

The current tally at PredictIt:

McCarthy .62
Scalise .25
Jordan .05
Trump .04
Stefanik .03

Update 12:10 p.m. We’re here for Vote No. 12 on Friday, and here’s where we are. Remember that McCarthy seems to have made some kind of deal with the right flank of his caucus, but random things like members of Congress flying home to be with their families after childbirth.

It’s another day of who knows, but we’ll all find out together shortly!

American Civics Exchange:
McCarthy - 47%
Scalise - 38%
Field - 15%

PredictIt:
McCarthy .52
Scalise .32
Trump .05
Jordan .05
Stefanik .05
Jeffries .04

Update 7:38 p.m. Like an extra inning baseball game, we move to the 12th. In the 11th, no runs, no hits, and plenty of errors it appears:

Hakeem Jeffries: 212
Kevin McCarthy: 200
Byron Donalds: 12
Kevin Hern: 7
Donald Trump: 1
Present: 1
Not voting: 1

PredictIt: McCarthy .48, Scalise .31, Trump .04, Stefanik .04, Jeffries .04, Jordan .03.

We’d be adding more updates here, but there’s not much really to say. The right wing of the Republican party doesn’t appear to be moving, and there are no fresh ideas that we can see. If that changes, we’ll probably see movement in the betting markets. But until then, enjoy the C-Span merry-go-round.

Update 5:56 p.m. After ballot No. 9, the results:

Hakeem Jeffries: 212
Kevin McCarthy: 200
Byron Donalds: 13
Kevin Hern: 7
Present: 1
Not voting: 1

But the odds are starting to break towards McCarthy because of rumors of the sides starting to bargain in some kind of faith. So it’s McCarthy 67%, Scalise 28%, Field - 5% at American Civics Exchange, and McCarthy .55, Scalise .28, Jordan .05, Trump .04, Stefanik .03 at PredictIt.

Are the betting markets ahead of the votes? It’ll take at least a tenth vote for us to find out.

Update 4:49 p.m. Here we go again as the ninth ballot will begin shortly, the most in a century. The latest odds:

PredictIt: McCarthy .43, Scalise .36, Trump .05, Jordan .05, Stefanik .04, Jeffries .04.

American Civics Exchange: McCarthy 48%, Scalise 40%, Field 12%. Odds to resolve

Today: 2.5%
Tomorrow: 45%

Settle in folks, it seems overwhelmingly likely we’re going to double-digits here.

Update 3:06 p.m. The results of the eighth overtime vote for Speaker of the House in the 118th Congress.

Jeffries 212
McCarthy 201
Donalds 17
Kevin Hern 2
Donald Trump 1
Present 1

PredictIt: McCarthy .40, Scalise .37, Trump .06, Stefanik .05, Jordan .04, Jeffries .04.

That gives the Democratic leader a 25-1 shot of becoming the Speaker while in the minority, and remember he just needs to pick off five centrist Republicans that are unhappy with how this process is unfolding.

It seems extremely unlikely, as if there were to be a consensus candidate that Democrats agreed to it would likely need to be someone from a moderate Republican position, or a non-member with center or center-right leanings.

But the incentives for the moderate wing of the Republican caucus and the Democrats working together would seem to grow with each failed ballot. As of now, we’d have our money on “other.”

Update 1:37 p.m. — As America’s longest-running political drama continues to unfold, PredictIt now has McCarthy and Scalise at even. They’re both priced at .39 to become the next Speaker, with Trump, Stefanik, and Jordan all at .06.

Perhaps the only drama here might be if the Democrats could manage to pick off five or more centrist Republicans. Could they manage to get a Speaker (maybe even one from outside the body) over the line and shut out the right-wing of the Republican caucus

Scalise might be a consensus candidate that could bring everyone together, but he’s also a part of the Republican establishment, and pledged his loyalty to McCarthy. Plus he might not want to be asked “et tu?” by the man that hand-picked him as majority leader.

January 5 Update 12:53 p.m. — McCarthy is about to lose his seventh vote, but at least we got a bit of drama as Matt Gaetz of Florida has decided to cast his vote for Donald Trump. We’ll be going to an eighth ballot for sure however.

The American Civics Exchange currently has these odds: McCarthy 49%, Scalise 36%, Field - 15%. They also have a market asking when this will be over:

Resolves today - 40%
By tomorrow - 65%

At PredictIt: McCarthy .43, Scalise .37, Trump .05, Stefanik .05, Jordan .05, Jeffries .03

Update 9:52 p.m. — They did not get a seventh vote in, and so we adjourn for the night. American Civics Exchanged posted updated numbers and has it as McCarthy 55%, Scalise 30%, McHenry 7.5%, and Field 7.5%. We’ll see you on Thursday.

Update 4:21 p.m. — The House conducted a sixth round of voting and nothing changed yet again. McCarthy is once again the favorite at PredictIt with a price of 42 cents. Scalise s 35 cents, Stefanik is 6 cents, Jordan is 5 cents, Jeffries is 4 cents, and Trump is 2 cents. American Civics Exchange has it at McCarthy 40%, Scalise 35%, McHenry 12.5%, and Field 12.5%.

Update 2:40 p.m. — The House relatively quickly got in a fifth round of voting ... and nothing changed. Jeffries got 212 votes, McCarthy got 201, and Donalds got 20. Scalise is seeing his odds improve at PredictIt. He is up to .45, McCarthy is down to .30, Stefanik is up to .08, Jordan is up to .05, Jeffries is down to .03, , and Trump remains at .02. Again, House rules do not require the Speaker to be an actual House member.

Update 1:17 p.m. — The House got in a fourth round of voting, and the situation managed to get a little worse for Kevin McCarthy. Indiana representative Victoria Spartz voted present and so McCarthy dropped to 201 votes. This round saw a switch from the anti-McCarthy Republicans. Instead of nominating Jim Jordan, they nominated Florida’s Byron Donalds.

These moves have no dropped McCarthy out of favored status in the odds. At PredictIt, the pricing is currently Scalise .39, McCarthy .37, Stefanik .07, Jeffries .04, Jordan .04, and Donald Trump at .02. House rules do not require the Speaker to be an actual House member.

At American Civics Exchange, it’s as follows: Scalise 40%, McCarthy 32.5%, McHenry 12.5%, Donalds 5% (new), Jordan 2.5%, Field 7.5%.

Update Wed, Jan 4, 10:59 a.m. — House Republicans are attempting to adjourn until Thursday, forgoing any speakers votes on Wednesday. It will require the GOP carrying the vote on their own as House Democrats are expected to whip against this.

Update 5:30 p.m. — One day won’t be enough, as the House has adjourned for Tuesday and we’ll come back in an attempt to elect a speaker at some point.

Remember: No House business can take place until a Speaker is elected and the rules are passed. So one-half of Congress is essentially shut down until this is resolved.

Right now at American Civics Exchange: Scalise: 42.5%, McCarthy 40%, Jordan 12.5%, Field 5%

At PredictIt: McCarthy .43, Scalise .31, Jordan .11, Stefanik .06, Jeffries .03

Update 4:55 p.m. — Third ballot results:

Jefferies: 212
McCarthy: 202
Jordan: 20

McCarthy actually lost a vote via Byron Donalds, and now PredictIt now has Steve Scalise as the favorite at .39, McCarthy at .38, Jordan at .13, and Stefanik at .06.

We’ll add more odds shortly where we can find them.

Update 4:30 p.m. — McCarthy is going the wrong way here, as Byron Donalds (a Freedom Caucus member from Southwest Florida) has switched his vote from McCarthy to Jordan, while none of Jordan’s 19 supporters from the last vote has flipped towards him.

Latest odds from American Civics Exchange: McCarthy 40%, Scalise 37.5%, Jordan 20%, Field 2.5%.

There are already 12 votes for Jordan, so we’re going to at least a fourth ballot here. Whether that happens today or tomorrow or later is yet to be determined.

Update 4:05 p.m. — We are heading to a third ballot, and the projected majority leader in Steve Scalise nominates and endorses McCarthy this time, despite Scalise being the second choice on the odds board presently.

Here are the current odds from American Civics Exchange, where traders can place bets on political events over the counter in a similar manner to stocks or futures contracts: McCarthy at 52.5%, Scalise at 30%, Jordan at 15% and field at 2.5%.

If McCarthy could just get the people endorsing him from the floor to get their followers behind him, he’d have the gavel already.

At PredictIt, it’s McCarthy .49, Scalise .31, Jordan .13, and Elise Stefanik at .06.

Update 3:18 p.m. — Here we go again. It’s taking about 45 minutes to get through each ballot, and that means we could be here for quite awhile. All those that had voted for other candidates on the first ballot decided to consolidate their support behind Jim Jordan, despite Jordan himself nominating McCarthy!

Not one member used their stance against McCarthy as just a first-round protest vote, as he didn’t add a single member in Round 2.

Hakeem Jeffries – 212
Kevin McCarthy – 203
Jim Jordan – 19

At PredictIt:

Kevin McCarthy .53
Steve Scalise .29
Jim Jordan .12 (up from .02 earlier today)

Update 2:40 p.m. — As we hit the letter C in the second alphabetical roll call vote, McCarthy once again will fall short as Jim Jordan has already received eight votes. McCarthy is at .52 at PredictIt to be Speaker still, with the presumed majority leader Steve Scalise the second choice at .26.

Jordan’s speech nominating McCarthy doesn’t seem to be swaying the right flank of the Republican caucus, and we’ll see how many more defections there are.

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The vote to become Speaker of the House in the 118th Congress was expected to be contentious, but the battle for Kevin McCarthy to take the gavel hasn’t played out in his favor so far.

Here are the results of the first ballot. Someone, eventually, will need to get to 218 votes to take over as speaker, which is 50%+1 of the elected House. There are currently 434 members after the death of Donald McEachin of Virginia in November.

Speaker of the House first ballot results

Hakeem Jeffries – 212
Kevin McCarthy – 203
Andy Biggs – 10
Jim Jordan – 6
Other – 3

There are more than five members that have claimed to be “Never Kevin,” and saying that under no circumstances will they vote for McCarthy to be the leader of the House.

So how do the betting markets think this will go? Yesterday McCarthy was at .61 to become Speaker at PredictIt, roughly equating to a 61% chance to take the job. That has fallen to .52 as of this writing. The man that has increased the most on that scale is Steve Scalise of Louisiana, who was elected majority whip by his party and has endorsed McCarthy for Speaker. He’s gone from .27 to .34 after the first ballot.

While the Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries did win the first ballot via plurality, and while no Democrats strayed and voted for someone else, he’s not going to become the next Speaker. There is a consensus amongst the Republicans voting against him that will not happen.

We’ll add more here as we find more betting movement and additional votes are taken.