We have an interesting, pseudo-ACC matchup to look forward to on Saturday night as the No. 11 Notre Dame Fighting Irish head down to Wallace Wade Stadium in Durham to meet the No. 17 Duke Blue Devils. Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on ABC. The atmosphere on Duke’s campus will be electric on Saturday as it will host ESPN’s College Gameday for the very first time…for football. The basketball version of the show has visited several times.
Notre Dame (4-1) was on the losing end of its heavyweight fight against Ohio State last Saturday, falling in a heartbreaking 17-14 loss. In eerily similar circumstances to the epic “Bush Push” game against USC in 2005, the Fighting Irish defense found themselves on their own goal line in the waning seconds of the contest. With just 10 players on the field, the Irish were not able to stop Buckeye running back Chip Trayanum from punching in the one-yard, game-winning score for OSU. On offense, quarterback Sam Hartman had a quiet but efficient day against a tough Ohio State defense, going 17-25 for 175 yards and clutch two-yard touchdown pass to Rico Flores Jr. midway through the fourth quarter.
Duke (4-0, 1-0 ACC) had no problems heading north and burying UConn in a 41-7 rout last Saturday afternoon. The Blue Devil defense completely blanked the Huskies for the first three quarters as it only yielded a garbage-time touchdown with the game well decided late in the fourth quarter. Quarterback Riley Leonard had an efficient day, going 23-34 for 248 yards through the air while recording both a passing and a rushing touchdown in the win.
SP+ Rankings
Notre Dame: 11 overall, 17 offense, 12 defense
Duke: 24 overall, 28 offense, 24 defense
Injury update
Notre Dame
TE Eli Raridon – Out indefinitely (Knee)
DL Gabe Rubio – Out indefinitely (Knee)
K Chris Salerno – Out indefinitely (Leg)
WR KK Smith – Out indefinitely (Shoulder)
Duke
No new injuries to report
ATS/Total
Against The Spread in 2023
Notre Dame: 3-1-1 ATS
Duke: 3-1 ATS
Total in 2023
Notre Dame: Over 3-2
Duke: Over 2-1-1
Current lines at DraftKings Sportsbook
Spread: Notre Dame -5.5
Total: 52.5
Moneyline: Notre Dame -205, Duke +170
Opening line: Notre Dame -5
Opening total: 52
Weather
The Pick
Under 52.5
Notre Dame is understandably a favorite for this matchup, but this is the worst possible game it could play after last week’s heavyweight fight. There is a potential bodyblow/hangover element for the Fighting Irish after playing Ohio State and that could mean a sluggish start for them.
Meanwhile, Duke has the 24th ranked defense in SP+ and like last year, they are one of the nation’s top teams in turnover margins. An underrated element of this game is that this Blue Devil team has a lot of familiarity against Sam Hartman and they’ll try to make things difficult for the former Wake Forest QB. There’s potential for an upset here, but I’ll stick with the under as I think Mike Elko and company will turn this into a slugfest.