We’ve officially reached the final weekend of the 2023 MLB regular season, meaning there are precious few opportunities left to find profitable player prop bets. Luckily, the schedule on Saturday offers a full slate to choose from, so here are three of our favorite plays of the day (all odds courtesy DraftKings Sportsbook).
MLB player prop bets: Saturday, September 30
Michael Wacha, over 16.5 outs recorded (-120)
To say that the Chicago White Sox struggle against right-handed pitching would be a massive understatement. The South Siders have been the second-worst offense in the Majors against righties this month, with a woeful .233/.277/.368 as a team. Padres journeyman Nick Martinez dominated Chicago with eight Ks over five shutout innings on Friday, and I expect Wacha to one-up his teammate on Saturday night. Wacha was sensational in his last start, giving up just two runs over seven innings of work against the Cardinals; he’s been arguably the sturdiest part of the Padres’ rotation this side of Blake Snell (3.39 ERA this year) and he’s fully stretched out, with no reason for San Diego to have him on a pitch count. 5.2 innings of work is eminently attainable tonight.
Quinn Priester, over 2.5 earned runs allowed (-115)
Color me very confused by this line. Priester has had a very, very rough rookie season: Pittsburgh’s top pitching prospect is coming off a quality start against the Reds (six IP, two ER) but that’s the only time in his nine MLB appearances that Pittsburgh’s top pitching prospect has allowed fewer than three earned runs. The Marlins are working with some powerful devil magic right now, and they’ve quietly been a top-10 offense against right-handed pitching this month — and the very best offense in baseball against righties over the past two weeks. A struggling pitcher against a hot team that has a postseason berth to play for tonight? I’m backing the Miami bats here, especially considering that Pittsburgh wants to give its young arm as much experience as it can.
Max Muncy, over 1.5 total bases (+115)
The results haven’t been there for Muncy of late (.687 OPS over his last 10) but the infielder has been getting wildly unlucky, with a .480 wOBA and 58.3% hard contact rate over the last week. I’m betting on that regressing back towards the mean on Saturday night, especially against Giants righty Tristan Beck and his 8.64 ERA in three appearances so far this month. Muncy mashes right-handed pitching, and he just needs some more of his line drives to find grass for this over to cash.