I think it’s a pretty tough week for sides in the NFL, but a couple jump out to me (as well as a potential teaser I’m monitoring if we get the numbers we need). I’ve been doing better with player props so far, and fortunately we have plenty of those available this week on DraftKings Sportsbook. Let’s rip through them all.
My 2023 NFL betting record entering Week 4 is 23-19-2 (-2.99-units).
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Atlanta Falcons vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (London)
JAX -3 (-108) — 1-unit
The Jags take their annual trip to London, so we know they’re comfortable in this spot. However, what was surprising is how uncomfortable they looked at home against the Texans last week. I don’t feel like division is just going to be a cakewalk for the Jags like others do, but I do feel this week offers a strong opportunity to get one back in the win column.
Big revenge spot for Calvin Ridley in particular, going up against his old team, but also coming off a dreadful game versus Houston. Atlanta has been good in the secondary this season, but this presents a tougher matchup. The Falcons have also given up a lot on the ground, so I expect Travis Etienne to help set the tone here. Ultimately, I’m pretty down on Desmond Ridder and this offense, and don’t think they’ll be able to keep up. No team has left more points on the table this season than the Jags. That trend is eventually going to swing back the other way.
Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills
BUF -2.5 (-118) — 1-unit
This is just kind of a Gambling 101 play for me. All the hype is focused on this Miami offense, particularly after dropping an insane 70 points last week. But who have the Dolphins really beat? Frankly, nobody. They dropped the Broncos to 0-3 last week, and the other teams they beat (Chargers and Patriots) just got their first wins of the season on Sunday over the Vikings and Jets!
Time for a real test, and playing in Buffalo is just that. Tua Tagovailoa is 0-3 in Buffalo in his career, and the Bills have been steamrolling since that embarrassing MNF debut. The Jets just seem to have Josh Allen’s number defensively, but he’s been lights out since. In the trenches and on defense the Bills should find themselves with an advantage here. Let’s see what this passing attack can really do for Miami against the third-ranked passing defense in terms of yards allowed.
With a hyped home crowd in a stadium that I feel home field makes a difference, I like the Bills to pull this one out.
Potential Teaser Option
PHI -2.5/KC -2.5 (-120)
Philly sits at 8.5 as I write this on Friday morning, playing host to Washington this weekend. The Chiefs have come down from 10 to nine-point favorites on SNF at the Jets. If it gets to 8.5, which we’ve seen in the market, I am interested in taking these two favorites through a bunch of key numbers to get them at -2.5.
Stay tuned.
Player Props
Jordan Addison OVER 39.5 Receiving Yards (-120) — 1.25-units
While it was a sweaty one last week, Addison got over his receiving yard prop that closed in the low fifties. That puts the rookie at 3-0 to the over in his young career, so I’m a bit stunned to see his prop drop back down to what it was in Week 1. Carolina technically has a top-10 pass defense in terms of yards allowed, but Minnesota really leans heavy on its passing game. After going for 62 in his debut and 71 in Week 2, this number is set too low. Addison also played a career high snap percentage last week, so he might be getting even more involved in the offense. I was stunned to see this discount.
Travis Etienne OVER 68.5 Rushing Yards (-115) — 0.75-units
I mentioned I’m on the Jags, and I think getting Etienne and the run game going is a major reason why. The Falcons have been a below-average run defense in the early going, giving up over 117 yards per game. The only starting RB not to get to this number against the Falcons was the struggling AJ Dillon. Both Miles Sanders and Jahmyr Gibbs rushed for 72+ yards in this matchup. Meanwhile, outside of a tough game playing from behind against Kansas City, Etienne has ran for 18-77-1 at Indy and 19-88-0 versus Houston.
D’Andre Swift OVER 63.5 Rushing Yards (-120) — 0.75-units
I don’t know what the hell happened when Swift got one rushing attempt in Week 1, but since then he’s unlocked a monster workload. The former Lion is certainly making the most of it, going for 28-175-1 on TNF against the Vikings and then 16-130-0 on MNF in Tampa. This week, Philly sets up as a big home favorite against a Washington squad that ranks 22nd in the NFL and is allowing close to 130 rushing yards per game. They got stomped by Buffalo last week, surrendering 168 on the ground. We’re not getting this number in the thirties anymore unfortunately, but this still is a great spot for more big numbers.
Zack Moss OVER 66.5 Rushing Yards (-115) — 0.75-units
The Colts showed virtually no run game outside of Anthony Richardson in Week 1, but that was a game Moss was inactive for. Since he’s suited up, the Colts have been giving Moss a Jonathan Taylor-type of workload, and he’s been making the most of it. Moss went for 18-88-1 in his debut in Houston, and then saw an impressive 30-122-0 last week in Baltimore. That last performance is what really opened my eyes to how much of a workload this coaching staff is comfortable giving Moss, so his role seems very safe. Even if Richardson is playing QB again this week, that should just open up more options on the ground. The Rams have been an average run defense, but we did see them give up 159 to the Niners in Week 2, and we know Indy’s identity is going to be running the ball.
Tyjae Spears OVER 18.5 Rushing Yards (-120) — 0.75-units
Buying low on a couple of backups with these next plays, but I have my reasons. I don’t know what is going on with Derrick Henry, but it isn’t good. He’s averaging just 3.2 yards per carry, and Spears seems to be getting more and more snaps. Yes, the game script last week called for more passing, but is was the second time this season Henry has played less than half the snaps — a season-low 38%. It was the second time this season the rookie has out-snapped Henry. Spears struggled last week against an elite Cleveland run defense (as did Henry), but in his fist two games he went for 76 total yards on just 11 carries. Cincy ranks 29th in rushing yards allowed with over 150 per game. This one could just take a few carries to get there.
Ezekiel Elliott OVER 27.5 Rushing Yards (-115) — 0.75-units
Rhamondre Stevenson is still the RB1 here, but in a game that the Patriots finally were not playing from behind the entire time, the snap counts got a little closer — 47 for Stevenson and 27 for Zeke. Elliott showed very well, though, carrying on 16 of those 27 snaps and rushing for 80 yards. Even if his workload is cut in half this week, I think Zeke can sneak over this number against a Dallas run defense that was really exposed by the Cardinals of all teams last week. The Cowboys are allowing over 130 yards per game on the ground, and … of course, we have a revenge narrative here with Zeke in Dallas.
Christian McCaffrey OVER 78.5 Rushing Yards (-115) — 0.75-units
CMC has been machine-like in the early going this season. He ripped off 152 and 116 rushing yards in the first two games of the season, but we knew his workload could come down a bit last week. The Niners were on a short week at home, and were playing with a big lead against the Giants. Eli Mitchell got more involved, and he should again this week as monster favorites over Arizona. That said, McCaffrey still carried 18 times for 85 yards and a touchdown against New York. The Cards are giving up nearly 135 yards per game on the ground, and the game script sets up for a run-heavy game plan.
Week 5 Lookahead: Cowboys at 49ers
SF -3 (-115) — 1.5-units
I’m getting ahead of the Week 5 board and betting a side that I do have some conviction in. The Niners are clearly the more balanced and more polished team over the Cowboys, and I think Dallas could really get exposed here on the road on both sides of the ball.
The Cowboys are off an embarrassing loss to Arizona, and shift their focus to a bounce-back spot at home against the Patriots. That could be a competitive game, whereas I think the Cardinals now have no shot of sneaking up on San Francisco this week. The only way this number can move is towards the Niners unless there’s a massive injury. So I’ll play it now at a price I really like.
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*Odds and lines are for illustrative purposes only.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.
