Well, this is it. My final best bets article of the MLB regular season. Hopefully you’ve profited from reading these words each and every week, but if you haven’t, just know that I in no way hold myself liable. Like, you should have only bet the winners. That’s pretty obvious.
Let’s dive into this massive Friday slate.
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Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals
Reds ML (-122)
Have you seen the lineup that the Cardinals have been rolling out the past few days? While Oli Marmol all but admitted yesterday that he’d been holding Paul Goldschmidt (back) out of the lineup solely because the team had been on the road, St. Louis’ IL currently includes the likes of Nolan Arenado (back), Nolan Gorman (hamstring), Willson Contreras (wrist) and Tyler O’Neill (foot). That’s probably why the Cardinals are slashing an anemic .207/.295/.298 over the last two weeks. The team’s 68 wRC+ within that same span? It’s the worst mark in the National League. The return of Goldschmidt will help the cause — particularly against the left-handed Brandon Williamson — but this is basically the Memphis Redbirds roster.
Then there’s Jake Woodford. Last Saturday, the 26-year-old made his first start since all the way back in April, surrendering a single earned run over 3.2 innings of work in San Diego. Despite the reasonable outing, Woodford owns a 5.34 ERA as a starter in 2023. In those seven appearances, he’s allowed opponents to hit .310 with a .390 wOBA. He’s conceded a whopping 1.97 home runs per nine. If the Reds can’t score enough to win this game, they honestly don’t deserve to make the playoffs.
Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles
John Means Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-115)
There’s a lot to consider with pitching props as the season winds down, especially when said pitcher is on a team headed to the playoffs. Often times, you’ll see managers choose to play it safe with their arms. Corbin Burnes threw only 66 pitches on Thursday for the Brewers. Pablo Lopez tossed just 77 pitches on Wednesday for the Twins. Now, Means is not Baltimore’s ace. It’s honestly unclear whether the Orioles currently plan to use the left-hander as a starter in October, though their rotation gets a little thin after Grayson Rodriguez and Kyle Bradish. Still, the former All-Star has been effective since returning from the IL and, with 96 pitches in his last start, Means is fully built up. He doesn’t need to pitch deep into this contest.
All this to say, unders tend to be the move in these specific scenarios. Baltimore won its 100th game of the season on Thursday, locking down its division and the No. 1 seed in the American League. The Orioles have nothing left to play for and I’d be shocked to see Means go more than five innings versus the Red Sox — if that. We’re also talking about a pitcher who is currently in possession of a 9.1% strikeout rate. It’s a small sample, and Boston has been racking up the whiffs as of late, yet it’s not like Means would be guaranteed to go over this prop even if he threw 110 pitches. It’s not his skill set.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is theglt13) and I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
