Pretty solid betting card in college football this week on DraftKings Sportsbook. We have some good games throughout the day, but I’m really excited we finally get a big-time game on Friday night — especially since it happens to be my favorite bet of the week.
Make sure that you are in our DK Network betting group. A lot of these picks are released earlier in the week, and you can find them here.
If you want more of a breakdown on this weekend’s card, checkout the Unreasonable Odds Podcast!
My 2023 college football betting record entering Week 5 is 20-16 (+3.63-units).
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Utah at Oregon State (Friday 9:00 pm ET)
Oregon State ML (-120) — 2-units
I’ve has this spot circled since before the season, and actually made a small bet on Oregon State before the season began. It looked like a good spot then, and after the results we got last week, it’s now become an even stronger spot.
Utah got a big home win last week over UCLA in a game that saw the spread bounce all over the place. That was because we are still awaiting the return of Cam Rising, and we got various reports about his status throughout the week. Rising wound up sitting, but the Utes got an impressive home victory, fueled by their defense. They started off with a defensive touchdown, and ultimately won 14-7 in a game the offense only managed seven points.
Sure, the Utes are tough defensively, but we haven’t seen them tested away from home yet — unless you count a win that they struggled to earn against a poor Baylor team. I’m not sure that type of defensive performance will be maintained going to Corvallis for a rowdy Friday night game. As for the QB situation, I like the Beavers regardless. If the freshman Nate Johnson continues to play, he hasn’t had the offense doing much, and would be in over his head in this environment. If it’s Rising, while he’ll remain cool under pressure, this is a really tough game to ask him to go out there and knock the rust off.
Meanwhile, the Beavers are in a revenge spot after a road loss at Utah last season, and coming off a really tough road loss at Washington State last week. Expect them to be dialed in here at home on Friday night. I’m amped for this one.
This was my first play of the week I put out, but if the line never comes back down based on Rising news, I’m fine playing -3 or better, or using a team like Iowa (more on the Hawkeyes later) to round our a ML parlay.
USC at Colorado (Saturday 12:00 pm ET)
OVER 73.5 (-110) — 1-unit
We’ve been talking about this total on Unreasonable Odds for weeks. Glash and I were fortunate enough to grab it a week early at 71.5, but I still love it at 73.5, so I’ll give it out at the current number.
Colorado walked into a buzzsaw last week — a road game against a motivated Oregon team that wanted to prove a point on defense. The Ducks did just that. But we did learn that Colorado’s defense might be even worse than we thought, particularly without Travis Hunter — the Buffs gave up 35 in the first half, and 42 for the game after the Ducks took their foot off the gas.
This week, the Buffs will have to deal with probably an even more explosive offense in the Trojans. USC is averaging 55 points per game, but also carries over the soft defense that gave them so many issues last season. The Trojans have already allowed 28 points to the likes of Arizona State and San Jose State. If you want to play the Buffs over their team total I like that play as well, but I’ll just bank on some explosive offense, and not much defense from either side.
Clemson at Syracuse (Saturday 12:00 pm ET)
Syracuse +7 (-110) — 1.5-units
I trusted Clemson to right the ship last Saturday at home in a must-win game against FSU. They almost were able to pull it off, but just way too many mistakes and poor coaching ultimately held them back. At 2-2, this isn’t a bounce-back week for the Tigers. Their season is now over, and the ship is sinking.
It’s going to be tough for Dabo Swinney to motivate this group after he made it clear they needed to win out following the Duke loss. But Syracuse cares about none of this. They are 4-0 and yet to fail to cover a spread this season. This is the Super Bowl for the Orange, as it’ll be their biggest home game of the season. ‘Cuse has always played Clemson tough over the years, and I think the home dog could be live to steal this one outright.
Florida at Kentucky (Saturday 12:00 pm ET)
Kentucky ML (-122) — 1-unit
Florida feels like a team we’re going to be zig zagging on all season. They weren’t supposed to be very good, and looked very mistake prone in the opener at Utah. But the Gators fixed some of that, and were very ready for a home matchup against Tennessee, which they won outright as dogs. That said, I think this Florida team plays much better at home, and I also think the Vols are pretty overrated this season.
So going away from home for a big division rivalry game against Kentucky should present a problem. The Wildcats have been far from perfect, but they can put up some points, and potentially get the Gators playing more like they were that night in Utah versus the comfortability of how they play at The Swamp.
We’ll see where the number closes, but so far this has been an unranked home favorite against a ranked dog, which is historically a good spot to be on the favorite.
Washington at Arizona (Saturday 10:00 pm ET)
Washington Team Total OVER 42.5 (-115) — 1-unit
We’ve cashed this one a couple times already, as the Huskies are 4-0 to the over on their team total — and it hasn’t been all that close. Auto play on this one until we run into any serious problems, or there’s just an awful spot. Michael Penix Jr. deserves to be the Heisman favorite, which gives Washington motivation to keep putting up big numbers, even with a comfortable lead.
I have some other leans for the week that I’ll mention, along with the reasons for not firing on a play yet.
On Friday night, I’m pretty intrigued by BYU. But I’m a little confused why the number is moving so much against the Cougars. Going from -2.5 to +2.5 signifies missing a very key piece like a QB. But if BYU is healthy, I love them as a home dog against a Cincy team that just played a big game at home against Oklahoma. Really tough road game for Cincy.
Strong lean to the public road favorite in LSU, who goes to Ole Miss. It’s a bounce-back spot for the Rebels, who should be able to put up some points on this LSU defense. But the Tigers should be ready to put up big numbers too. I’d likely have an LSU ML bet here if i wasn’t already so heavily invested in them in the futures market.
In the Notre Dame game at Duke, I lean home dog. If this gets to +6 or more, maybe I’ll play it. The Irish should’ve beat Ohio State at home, but crumbled on defense in the final drive. Yes, it sets up a bounce-back spot, but Duke is pretty good, and this should be a hype atmosphere. The Blue Devils are very good on offense, and showed some grit on defense against Clemson (with some very helpful turnovers in their favor). Lean Duke.
I did bet Iowa -7 at open, as that number seemed just insane. Turns out it was, and moved quickly to 12.5 before I could even give it out. If you need a big favorite on the ML to bring down the price on a short favorite, this is where I’d look.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.
