On Tuesday, the Chicago Cubs (82-75) looked as if they were in position to pick up a crucial win over the Atlanta Braves (101-56) and gain some ground in the NL Wild Card race. Then Seiya Suzuki dropped a pop fly in the eighth inning to give the Braves an improbable win.
Seiya Suzuki drops it and Atlanta takes the lead pic.twitter.com/NSb84LLKnX
— B/R Walk-Off (@BRWalkoff) September 27, 2023
Now the Cubs’ lead for the final Wild Card spot is down to just a half-game as they send Jameson Taillon (8-10, 5.05 ERA) to the mound on Wednesday, where he’ll face off against Atlanta rookie Darius Vines (1-0, 4.40).
The Braves are -162 moneyline favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook, while Chicago is the +136 underdog. The run total is set at 10.
Cubs-Braves picks: Wednesday, September 27
Injury report
Cubs
Out: INF Jeimer Candelario (low back strain), RP Adbert Alzolay (right forearm strain), INF Nick Madrigal (right hamstring strain), RP Brad Boxberger (right forearm strain), RP Michael Fulmer (right forearm strain),
Braves
Out: SP Charlie Morton (right index finger sprain), SP Max Fried (left index finger blister), RP Collin McHugh (right shoulder inflammation), RP Nick Anderson (right shoulder strain),
Starting pitchers
Jameson Taillon vs. Darius Vines
While Taillon’s had an up-and-down first year in Chicago (he’s been worth -0.6bWAR this year), he impressed in his last start by tossing six shutout innings against the Rockies to help the Cubs keep pace in the postseason race. That start has tied into his boom-or-bust reputation; he’s had two shutout starts in September along with two starts where he allowed five runs.
Vines is back with the Braves for the third time this month after Fried was placed on the IL earlier this week. Vines allowed two runs in six innings in his first MLB appearance back in July, but pitched out of the bullpen in his three September appearances. He allowed three runs in 3.1 innings to the Nationals in his last MLB appearance.
Over/Under pick
This really depends on which version of Taillon shows up. While I don’t think he’ll put together a scoreless start, I like him to hold his own against this Braves lineup. The same can be said for Vines, who seems much more comfortable as a starter compared to a reliever. After a high-scoring affair on Tuesday, I’m expecting today’s game to be a bit more muted.
Pick: Under 10
Moneyline pick
The Cubs pick up the upset win. While the Braves’ lineup is one of the best in MLB history, the Cubs are in the thick of a Wild Card race and need every win they can get. It’ll be close, but I’m banking on the Cubs to get the job done tonight.
Pick: Cubs +136