The Philadelphia Phillies (87-69) look to officially punch their ticket to the National League playoffs as they welcome the instate rival Pittsburgh Pirates (74-82) to town for the first game of a three-game series on Tuesday, September 26. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET from Citizens Bank Park. Mitch Keller (13-9, 4.25 ERA) will take the mound for the Pirates, and Aaron Nola (12-9 4.57) will pitch for the Phillies.
Philly enters as -163 moneyline favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook, with Pittsburgh coming in at +136. The run total is set at 7.5.
Pirates-Phillies picks: Tuesday, September 26
Injury report
Phillies
Out: 1B Rhys Hoskins (knee), SP Andrew Painter (UCL)
Pirates
Out: RP Colin Holderman (thumb), SP Bailey Falter (neck)
Starting pitchers
Mitch Keller vs. Aaron Nola
Keller struggled in his latest start, a road outing against the Cubs. He let up seven earned runs in 5.2 innings and recorded six strikeouts. When Keller faced the Phillies back in July, he fared pretty well, conceding six hits and two earned runs in 5.2 innings. He also struck out eight batters.
Nola looked solid against the Braves in his latest outing, letting up two earned runs in six innings and recording eight strikeouts. In his latest home start, he struggled, letting up four earned runs in 4.1 innings against the Marlins. Earlier this season, he had a bad outing against the Pirates, allowing nine hits and seven runs in just 4.2 innings.
Over/Under pick
The Phillies and Pirates have both looked very strong on offense as of late. Both pitchers have been somewhat inconsistent in their recent performances, so I’m going with the over in this matchup.
Pick: Over 7.5
Moneyline pick
The Pirates won two of three against the Reds in their latest series, and the Phillies swept the Mets. With the momentum that the Phillies have from that weekend, combined with their skin in the game for a Wild Card bid in what should be a raucous CBP crowd, I have to go with the Philadelphia moneyline here. Despite Nola’s struggles earlier this season against the Pirates, I think he should be able to keep the run count lower today.
Pick: Phillies -163