Monday, September 25 is the calm before the storm that is the final few days of the 2023 MLB season, with just four games on tap tonight as most teams travel following their weekend series. That means a very limited menu for those looking for profitable player props, but don’t worry — there’s always value to be found if you know where to look. Here are three of our favorite plays of the day, with odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
MLB player prop bets: Monday, September 25
Blake Snell, under 1.5 earned runs (-105)
Snell has been cooking recently, with just two runs allowed combined over his last five starts as he looks to close in on his second Cy Young Award (and first in the National League). One of his four scoreless outings since August 28 came against the Giants, whom he held to just three hits and four walks over six shutout innings while striking out eight — and whom the Padres lefty will face again on Monday night in what is essentially a Wild Card elimination game for both teams. This San Francisco lineup couldn’t touch Snell the last time they faced him, and they’ve been among the league’s worst outfits in the second half of the season. At pitcher-friendly Oracle Park, I think Snell has a very good chance of keeping his outstanding run going, especially at nearly plus odds.
Luis Castillo, under 5.5 strikeouts (+105)
Castillo has also been sensational of late, with a 1.89 ERA over his last three outings — all three of which have featured at least eight strikeouts. So why am I fading him in this spot? Well, each of those three starts came against whiff-happy teams in the A’s, Rays and (especially) Angels. The competition will stiffen considerably on Monday night, when Castillo leads the Mariners to battle against the Houston Astros to kick off a crucial series at T-Mobile Park. The two times the righty has faced Houston this season, he’s pitched well, with four earned runs allowed across 14 innings. He’s only struck out eight batters over those 14 frames, though, never clearing this number. The Astros remain one of the hardest teams to strike out in baseball, with the second-lowest K rate (17.6%) of any team against right-handed pitchers since the start of September.
Marcus Semien, over 1.5 total bases (+110)
Semien has been crushing the ball in September, with a .292/.370/.596 slash line for the month, six doubles and seven homers — including two in Texas’ huge win over the Mariners on Sunday afternoon. He’s swinging the bat very well right now, he’s locked into the leadoff spot in the Rangers lineup (meaning more at-bats) and he has a great matchup on Monday against Angels lefty Patrick Sandoval. Sandoval has allowed a whopping 22 runs (12 earned) in just 18.2 innings this month, and he allowed five runs (four earned) on four hits and a whopping six walks in 2.2 innings in his one start against Texas this year. Semien is 3-for-8 with a double, a triple, three walks and just one strikeout in 11 career plate appearances against Sandoval, and he should be in line for another big night.
