GPPs are not won by using all of the most popular players on the slate. Being a contrarian in a big-field event can help separate your lineup and gain you leverage over the field when some of the more popular names bust. The goal of this article won’t be to highlight the popular “play-it-safe” names that your Dad talks about at family dinner.
No. Us? We’re looking for some diamonds in the rough and guys that no one talks about — not even their own coaches.
OK, we’re not going that deep, but you get the idea — lower ownership and high upside. We’re looking for players who we feel good about but still make us feel alive inside. That’s the goal.
Let’s dive into Week 3.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: $3.5M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st + ToC Semifinal Entry]
Stacks
Game Stack: Detroit Lions vs. Atlanta Falcons
Jared Goff ($6,500) — Amon Ra St.Brown ($7,900) — Josh Reynolds ($4,200) — Kyle Pitts ($3,900)
This game has two talented offensive units, two exploitable defenses, and a great chance of producing some big-time fantasy goodness.
The Falcons come into this game ranking just 17th in QB pressures and with just three sacks on the season. This should be another great spot for Jared Goff to sit back and pick apart another talented-deprived secondary. Goff was terrific last week against another weaker defense in Seattle, completing 80% of his passes while averaging 9.2 yards per pass attempt. Despite producing 26.92 DKFP against Seattle last week his price this week really hasn’t risen much and he’s become far easier to stack after the usage stats we got from his receivers in the Seattle game.
Let’s start with the layup in Amon Ra St. Brown. While he missed a little practice time with a toe injury, St. Brown practiced in full on Thursday and comes in off his first 100+ yard game of the season where he produced an eye-catching 12.0-yard ADoT. The bigger story of Week 2 was the emergence of Josh Reynolds. Reynolds has now gone over 65 yards in both of his first two games and came down with two TD passes in Week 2, as well. While it’s easy to write off a performance like that from a journeyman like Reynolds, his 20.5% TPPR (targets per route run percentage) trails only St. Brown after two weeks, and his 33% air yards share leads the team.
On the other side of the ball, the Falcons come in averaging 170.5 rush yards per game (fourth in the league) but will face a Lions defense that skews heavily toward stuffing opposing RBs. Detroit allowed 3.3 yards per carry last week to Seattle and since Week 13 of last season, only one team (Carolina in Week 16) has had an RB go for more than 60 yards in a game against them. That means we may see a little more passing from Atlanta than usual this week which COULD allow Kyle Pitts to finally breakout. Despite the horrid two-reception, 15-yard line he posted in Week 2, Pitts maintained a 91% route participation rate and double-digit target share. Detroit allowed 132 yards to Seattle’s TEs last week and, overall, has allowed 87.5 receiving yards per game, to the position this year.
It may not feel comfortable to put him in lineups, but Pitts is still an electric after-the-catch receiver who can pay off his sub-4k salary on a play or two. More importantly, using him also gives you a cheap way to get a piece of the Atlanta offense — to finish off the game stack —and differentiate off of Bijan Robinson ($7,800), who will likely be a popular pick coming off a breakout game last week.
Quarterback: Deshaun Watson ($6,100), Cleveland Browns at Tennessee Titans
The Titans’ secondary remains one of the league’s worst — allowing 7.6 yards per attempt on the season and coming off a game where they allowed 305 yards to the Chargers. Watson hasn’t looked great as a passer (3rd last in EPA per play among all QBs on the season) but he’s also played in terrible conditions (Week 1) and against arguably the best pass rush in the league (Week 2). He’s still got a solid crew of after-the-catch receivers to work with in Amari Cooper ($5,700 – questionable) — who is now an extra week removed from a groin injury — and Elijah Moore ($4,700).
There is also the rushing factor with Watson to consider. Through two games, he’s averaged 5.5 carries per game and has a 7% designed run rate as well. Even with his terrible passing output, he was able to manage a 21.4 DKFP performance in Week 1 thanks to a late rushing TD. Not many people will be targeting this game for DFS, so using Watson along with one of his receivers for a mini-stack may be a great leverage play — especially with both defenses potentially being popular picks in larger fields as well.
Running Back
Top End: Tony Pollard, Dallas Cowboys @ Arizona Cardinals ($8,000)
The premise here is very simple. Tony Pollard is seeing some of the best RB usage through two weeks, is on one of the best teams in football, and faces one of the league’s bottom feeders in Arizona. Pollard has averaged 19.5 carries a game and has been the primary RB in the redzone for Dallas, landing two TDs on the season. Further, while there was potentially some concern about the Cowboys using Deuce Vaughn or another backup to reduce his receiving role, Pollard seemingly laid those concerns to rest last week when he went off for seven receptions and 37 receiving yards against the Jets.
Pollard’s not likely to see a 22% target rate every week (like he did against New York) but his 55% route participation rate on the year is very encouraging for his PPR-upside going forward. His $8,000 salary this week makes him the second most expensive RB on the slate but with the Cowboys set as -12.5 favorites as of writing, one could argue the market is $500-$1,000 too low on Pollard, who should be fed heavily once again against a weaker Arizona squad.
Low End: Javonte Williams, Denver Broncos at Miami Dolphins ($5,500)
It’s been a bit of a slow go for Javonte Williams in his first two games back. He’s only managed 7.8 and 9.7 DKFP in his first two starts and has produced just 3.85 YPC as a rusher. What is encouraging is that the team clearly regards him as their leading rusher. Williams has taken over 60% of the carries for Denver in each of the first two games and was the only Broncos RB to total more than two carries in Week 2 against the Commanders.
From a production viewpoint, we should expect Williams to get more efficient as the season wears on and he’s longer removed from his offseason knee surgery. The opponent this week is also a huge factor in liking Williams as Miami remains a great matchup for RBs. They’ve allowed 4.9 YPC on the season and got gashed in Week 1 for over 200 yards rushing by the Chargers’ running back unit. With wet weather in the forecast and a Broncos team that seems to want to feed Williams, this is a good upside spot for him in DFS. If he finds the end zone, too, a potentially big fantasy day is on the horizon.
Wide Receiver
Top End: Michael Pittman Jr. Indianapolis Colts at Baltimore Ravens ($6,200)
Pittman has started off the season well, by posting eight catches in each of his first two games. What really stood out was his usage numbers from Week 2, where he posted a 47% air yards share and 39% team target share while playing most of the game with pocket passer Gardner Minshew.
Pittman had some success with Anthony Richardson (concussion – out), but his odds of finding the endzone shoot way up without the near impossible-to-stop rusher under center. The Ravens’ secondary is also still dealing with numerous injuries as CB Marlon Humphrey (questionable) and S Marcus Williams (out) missed the game last week. Williams isn’t coming back anytime soon and Humphrey looks doubtful, as of now. Baltimore’s secondary also allowed Tee Higgins, another bigger boundary wide receiver, to post an 8-89-2 line against them in Week 3. At just $6,200, Pittman’s still decent value considering the plus opponent and has a decent shot at replicating some of Higgins’ monster stat line this week.
Top Value: Tank Dell, Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars ($3,600)
Houston ranks fifth in overall pass rate and has used a no-huddle offense on 15.6% of their plays (8th highest in the league). That’s allowed rookie Tank Dell to emerge as a viable fantasy option and a player who looks like a great value at just $3,600 on DraftKings in Week 3.
While he’s shared the spotlight with Nico Collins, Dell saw a massive bump in usage in Week 2, with an 82% route participation rate and a 22% TPRR. The Texans have been so pitiful at running the ball and also enter this week as +9.0 underdogs — so it’s hard to see this game against Jacksonville playing out in an unfavorable way for Dell. With some people not quite on board with trusting the Texans’ offense just yet, now’s a great time to use the rookie as a bargain-bin value option for DFS.
Tight End: Taysom Hill, New Orleans Saints vs. Green Bay Packers ($3,200)
While I do like Kyle Pitts ($3,900) as a play at TE this week — mentioned above — we can go even deeper (and sicker) at this position if we want to, by looking to the enigmatic Taysom Hill. Everyone knows Hill is more of a running back/gadget player than a true TE but his usage last week against Carolina is worth noting. He played on 41% of the snaps (up from 13% in Week 1) and was fed numerous times in the red zone where he came exceedingly close to landing a TD.
Obviously, Hill is somewhat of a TD-dependent play but with the Saints losing Jamaal Williams (injured reserve), it wouldn’t be shocking to see them deploy Hill in a much similar manner against Green Bay. The Packers allowed Desmond Ridder to rush for 39 yards and a TD last week and, overall, haven’t looked great at stopping the run. Hill’s the very definition of boom-or-bust but it wouldn’t be overly shocking to see him find the end zone this week after we saw how the Saints deployed him against Carolina.
Defense/Special Teams: New Orleans Saints ($2,900) vs. Green Bay Packers
The Saints enter this week with four forced turnovers on the season and given how they were hounding Bryce Young (out) last week, it could have been even more. This week they’ll be on the road again but will be taking on another inexperienced QB in Jordan Love (5,600), who will undoubtedly be facing the toughest test of his career. Love has looked good thus far but the Packers currently have two OL in LT David Bakhtiari and LG Elgton Jenkins listed as questionable and neither have practiced as of Thursday.
The Saints, as mentioned, have a very athletic secondary and a pass rush that ranks 12th in pressures on the season. With Christian Watson (questionable – hamstring) also missing practice again on Thursday this looks like another “by committee” approach for Green Bay at receiver, and a good spot to deploy the Saints at D/ST — who should be lower owned in most larger field GPPs.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: $3.5M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st + ToC Semifinal Entry]
The Crown Is Yours: Sign up for DraftKings and experience the ultimate host for games and betting experiences!
Place your NFL bets at DraftKings Sportsbook or by downloading the DraftKings Sportsbook app.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is wavegoodbye) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
