The Milwaukee Brewers are getting closer to sewing up the National League Central division and can take another step to do so on Thursday on the road against the St. Louis Cardinals.
Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals (-120, 8.5)
Wade Miley gets the start on the mound for the Brewers, who in terms of raw numbers has an 8-4 record with a 3.38 ERA, but the surface-level numbers do not appear sustainable if he continues to pitch the way he has.
Miley has allowed 1.3 home runs and 2.9 walks per nine innings while totaling just 5.8 strikeouts per nine innings and has a 4.92 fielding independent, which is more than a point and a half higher than his ERA.
While Miley is backed up by a Brewers bullpen that ranks second in the National League in bullpen ERA since the All-Star break, it will be difficult to keep the Cardinals from going deep at some point as they rank ninth in the league with 1.35 home runs per game and are averaging just under 4.7 runs per game at home this season.
For the Cardinals, Miles Mikolas gets the start at pitcher, who has allowed at least three runs in 11 of his last 12 starts, excluding a July 27 game against the Chicago Cubs where he was ejected in the first inning.
While Mikolas is allowing 1.1 home runs and 1.8 walks per nine innings, he has a 4.84 ERA and 4.33 fielding independent due in large part to allowing lots of general contact, totaling just 5.8 strikeouts per nine innings.
While the Brewers rank just 12th among the 15 National League teams in runs per game on the road and overall have the National League’s second-worst batting average, the team’s offensive production has picked up since trading for Carlos Santana.
Since July 28, the team ranks ninth in the league with nearly 5.2 runs per game despite ranking just 26th in the league in home runs in this span. They also rank 10th in on-base percentage.
With Mikolas’ ERA ballooning to 5.48 at home this season coupled with back up from a bullpen that ranks 24th in ERA since July 1, Thursday’s series finale sets up to be a hard-hitting event.
The Play: Brewers vs. Cardinals Over 8.5
