The Baltimore Orioles (94-56) continue to put a stranglehold on the top of the AL standings, taking the first two games of this three-game set against the Houston Astros (84-67). Houston will look to avoid a sweep — and maintain their grip on the AL West — this afternoon, with first pitch from Minute Maid Park set for 2:10 p.m. ET. Kyle Bradish (11-7, 3.12 ERA) gets the ball for the O’s, while the Astros counter with struggling righty Cristian Javier (9-4, 4.74).
This one is nearly a pick ‘em on the moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook, with Baltimore at -115 and Houston at -105. The run total is set at 9.
Orioles-Astros picks: Wednesday, September 20
Injury report
Orioles
Day-to-day: 1B Ryan Mountcastle (right shoulder soreness)
Out: RHP Felix Bautista (partial right UCL tear)
Astros
N/A
Starting pitchers
Kyle Bradish vs. Cristian Javier
Bradish has very quietly been one of the best pitchers in the AL this season, and he’s been particularly great in the second half — he has a 2.88 ERA over that span, going at least six innings in seven of eight starts. He took a loss last time out against the Rays, allowing four runs on seven hits in seven innings. That was the first time he allowed more than three runs in a start since July.
Javier, meanwhile, has been scuffling for months now. He has a 5.40 ERA in the second half, with 12 homers allowed in just 55 innings of work. The righty has gone more than five innings just once since July, allowing at least three earned runs in seven of eight outings over that span. Javier’s breakout last season was fueled by a nearly-unhittable four-seam fastball, but while he’s still as reliant on that pitch as ever — he throws it nearly 60% of the time — his command hasn’t been nearly what it was, leading to way too much hard contact (17th-percentile barrel rate).
Over/Under pick
We’ve seen totals of 15 and 14 over the first two games of this series, but I’m rolling with the under here this afternoon. Bradish has been absolute dynamite for months now, and I think he’ll keep that roll going despite the difficult matchup. He’s given Baltimore quality and length, and if he allows just two or three runs once again, that puts a lot of pressure on the O’s lineup to make up the rest of this total.
Pick: Under 9
Moneyline pick
With a lopsided pitching matchup and Baltimore looking like world-beaters at the moment, I’m not sure why this is nearly even money here. The O’s offense is rolling right now, and Javier is awfully hard to trust in this spot.
Pick: Orioles -115
