The cardiac Miami Marlins (79-73) did it again on Tuesday night, rallying in the ninth inning for a 2-1 walk-off win against the New York Mets (70-81) — and running their record in one-run games this season to a whopping 31-13. A half-game out of the final NL Wild Card spot, Miami will need to recapture some of that magic again tonight, with first pitch of the series finale from loanDepot Park set for 6:40 p.m. ET. It’s a matchup of dynamic rookies on the mound, as Mets ace Kodai Senga (11-7, 2.95 ERA) goes against Marlins phenom Eury Perez (5-5, 3.06).
Miami enters as -120 favorites on the moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook, with New York at +100. The run total is set at 7.5.
Mets-Marlins picks: Wednesday, September 20
Injury report
Mets
Out: RP Sean Reid-Foley (lat), OF Starling Marte (groin), SS Luis Guillorme (calf), SP Carlos Carrasco (finger)
Marlins
Out: SP Sandy Alcantara (right UCL sprain), OF Avisail Garcia (left hamstring strain), RP Huascar Brazoban (left hamstring strain, left hip impingement)
Starting pitchers
Kodai Senga vs. Eury Perez
The Mets are just playing out the string of a lost season, but Senga has fully blossomed into an ace over the second half. The righty has allowed more than two earned runs just twice in his last 12 starts, with a 2.47 second-half ERA and 78 Ks over his last 65.2 innings. When he has his ghost fork going, he’s just about unbeatable: The pitch carries a whopping 60% whiff rate, and batters are hitting just .112 against it this year. He’s faced the Marlins twice this year, in his first two starts in the Majors — allowing two combined runs with 14 strikeouts over 11.1 innings.
Perez hasn’t quite been able to recapture his early-season magic since returning to Miami’s rotation last month, with a 4.11 ERA in the second half compared to a 2.36 mark in the first half. The young righty has allowed three or four runs in four of his last seven starts, including three on five hits in 4.2 innings against the Brewers last week.
Over/Under pick
Monday’s game saw a total of three, and Tuesday’s needed three ninth-inning runs just to reach seven. Now we get an even more electric pitching matchup in the series finale, and I’m not confident that either of these lineups — both of which have struggled against right-handed pitching all year — will be able to get to either Senga or Perez. Expect another low-scoring affair tonight.
Pick: Under 7.5
Moneyline pick
Miami is the team with everything to play for here, but I’m backing New York — largely because they have a pitcher in Senga who’s looked like a 2024 Cy Young candidate of late. The Marlins will have an awfully hard time pushing runs across in this spot, and Perez has been just a bit wobbly of late.
Pick: Mets +100