Week Three. Which players will be the key, that will enable us to vault all the pretenders to the top of those juicy GPPs? Will it be someone from Tennessee? That wouldn’t be my first nominee since that game has a paltry total of 39 while the opponent is a stout Cleveland D. Let me decree. That I have no special knowledge from a certain tree but will do my best to navigate the player pool debris so that we may all end up in a state of glee. Hopefully, one of you will bink a tournament so that you may be financially free!
On DraftKings Sportsbook, there are five games with a total of at least 45 points: DEN/MIA (48), IND/BAL (46), ATL/DET (46.5), LAC/MIN (54.5) and CHI//KC (47.5). Two games have a total below 40: NE/NYJ (36.5) and TEN/CLE (39). There are two double-digit favorites – KC -12.5 over CHI and DAL -12 over ARI. Four games are within a field goal: NE -3 over NYJ, GB -2.5 over NO, CLE -3 over TEN and MIN -1 over LAC. WAS, NYJ and ARI are home dogs.
These are my early thoughts, but much of my lineup construction will depend on projected ownership numbers at the end of the week. That said, here are my studs and values for Sunday’s main DraftKings fantasy football slate.
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Quarterback
Stud
Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens vs. Indianapolis Colts, $7,700 — As of Wednesday, my assumption is that many will flock to the quarterbacks in the Chargers/Vikings game. I get it, as that game has the highest total on the slate by a wide margin and both teams have had difficulties on defense. With the expected high ownership, though, I’d rather pivot to other options who could match or possibly exceed the production of those two and likely focus on the rushing attacks in those games. It’s early so a lot can change between now and Sunday, but those are my initial thoughts.
After only putting up 8.56 DKFP in Week 1, Jackson bounced back in Week 2 with 22.88 DKFP, and that was with Gus Edwards ($5,300) scoring one on the ground. The ground game should be difficult for the Ravens to get going this weekend, as the Colts have one of the best rushing defenses in the league. The front seven is stout and they are limiting opposing offenses to a league-low 2.6 yards per carry through two weeks.
Jackson threw 33 times in Week 2 and a similar number should be expected this week. So far this season, the Colts have allowed the fourth-most yards through the air, the third-most touchdowns and the sixth-highest net yards per passing attempt. Jackson also rushed 12 times for 54 yards and is always a threat to rack up points with his legs.
Finally, this game has a healthy O/U of 46 and the Colts are playing fast this season. It wouldn’t surprise me if the Colts put up points in this one, whether it be Anthony Richardson ($6,700) or Gardner Minshew ($5,100) under center. If so, then that would force the Ravens to maintain aggression, which means more chances for fantasy goodies.
Other Options – Patrick Mahomes ($8,300), Tua Tagovailoa ($7,000), Kirk Cousins ($6,900), Anthony Richardson ($6,700)
Value
Sam Howell, Washington Commanders vs. Buffalo Bills, $5,400 — The Bills have one of the best offenses in the league, so they should be able to put up some points in this one. That means that Washington should have to remain aggressive throughout this one. Washington has been 10th in passing rate over the first two weeks of the season, so they don’t have problems letting Howell do his thing, for better or for worse. Howell has his issues at times, but he does have moxy and will give his guys opportunities to make plays. He’s put up 17.18 and 21.26 DKFP so far this season and is coming off an impressive game, going 27-of-39 for 299 yards and two touchdowns in Denver.
Other Options – Geno Smith ($5,700), Jordan Love ($5,600), Desmond Ridder ($5,000)
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Running Back
Stud
Tony Pollard, Dallas Cowboys at Arizona Cardinals, $8,000 — The Cowboys should be in control of this game from the get go, and the spread of 11.5 points as road favorites indicates as much. The defense should stifle the Cardinals offense and provide plenty of opportunities for Pollard, who has put up 19.9 and 22.2 DKFP this season. Both games were blowouts but Pollard racked up the fantasy goodies in different ways. He only carried 14 times in Week 1 but scored two touchdowns. Last week, he received a whopping 25 carries and caught seven of eight targets. Imagine if it all comes together! The floor/ceiling combo is one of the best on the slate.
Other Options – Bijan Robinson ($7,800), Jahmyr Gibbs ($6,600), Kenneth Walker III ($6,200)
Value
Josh Kelley, Los Angeles Chargers at Minnesota Vikings, $5,400 – I’m assuming that the ownership for Jerome Ford ($4,800) will be through the roof. 40%? 50%? At his price and expected usage, it’s really hard not to go there, but I don’t think the play is a slam dunk as well. The Titans have one of the best run defenses in the league, so it’s within the range of outcomes that Ford rushes 20 times for 70 yards with a few catches. I think the odds are low that he puts up a have-to-have-it score. Therefore, I’m pivoting to Kelley.
Now, if Austin Ekeler ($8,500), then all bets are off for Kelley.
Kelley disappointed last week, rushing 13 times for 39 yards, which should keep his ownership low. That was against the aforementioned Titans. This week, he gets to face the Vikings. Against the Eagles in Week 2, the strategy was to limit the passing attack, which allowed D’Andre Swift to rumble 28 times for 175 yards and a touchdown. The strength of the Chargers offense is the passing attack, so I think a similar strategy could be employed.
An added benefit with Kelley is that this game will be uber-popular, with many focusing on the passing attacks of both teams. If Kelley does have a big game, not only will you get those points at likely low ownership, but you’d be taking away points from the higher-rostered receivers.
Other Options – Alexander Mattison ($5,800), Brian Robinson Jr. ($5,800), Zach Moss ($5,500), Jerome Ford ($4,800), Tony Jones Jr. ($4,500), Kendre Miller ($4,300)
Wide Receiver
Stud
Justin Jefferson, Minnesota Vikings vs. Los Angeles Chargers, $9,300 — While I’m getting a little cute recommending Josh Kelley ($5,400) at running back, there will be no shenanigans up top at wide receiver. Jefferson is a stud and will provide studly numbers. Will he pay off his salary? Last season, he did score over 30 DKFP seven times with a high of 42.4 DKFP, so it’s well within the range of outcomes. It’s just not the likely outcome. That said, the floor is high and the game environment should be robust as the total is the highest on the slate. In two games this season, Jefferson has put up 27 and 28.9 DKFP while receiving 12 and 13 targets. Jefferson led the league with 180 targets last season and he should be among the league leaders once again.
Other Options – Tyreek Hill ($9,000), CeeDee Lamb ($7,700), Calvin Ridley ($7,200), Tyler Lockett ($6,400)
Value
Tank Dell, Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars, $3,600 – The Jaguars defense is tough, as they have tons of speed all over and limited the Chiefs to 17 points in Week 2. The unit currently boasts the highest hurry rate per dropback and the seventh-lowest aDOT. Mahomes was still able to throw for 305 yards, though. While it will be hard-pressed for C.J. Stroud ($5,300) to replicate that feat, he has looked poised so far this season and has attempted 44 and 47 passes in two games so far this season.
Dell only played in 48% of the snaps in Week 1, but that number increased to 79% last week. He ended up garnering 10 targets and caught seven for 72 yards. Many of the routes were comebacks on the outside and quick outs from the slot. With the Jaguars defense able to get pressure, those quick hitters will likely be the focus of the afternoon. Another double-digit target day wouldn’t be shocking.
Other Options – Amari Cooper ($5,700), Jordan Addison ($5,500), Zay Flowers ($5,400), Nico Collins ($5,300), Drake London ($5,000), Jahan Dotson ($4,900), Devin Duvenay ($3,100)
Tight End
Stud
TJ Hockenson, Minnesota Vikings vs. Los Angeles Chargers, $6,500 – The Vikings lead the league in passing rate at 77.97% and this game has the highest total on the slate. There should be plenty of opportunities for Hockenson in this one. So far this season, he’s garnered nine and eight targets with three red zone looks.
Other Options – Travis Kelce ($7,200), Mark Andrews ($6,000)
Value
Dalton Kincaid, Buffalo Bills at Washington Commanders, $3,400 – The rookie has been an integral part of the offense already this season, earning 10 targets through two games. He could see a boost this week, though, as Dawson Knox ($3,200) is dealing with a back injury and did not practice on Wednesday. More snaps and targets equals more opportunities for potential fantasy goodies.
Other Options – Taysom Hill ($3,300)
Defense/Special Teams
Stud
Cowboys D/ST at Arizona Cardinals, $4,400 – The Cowboys D/ST is expensive, but the floor/ceiling combo is one of the best on the slate. They have produced 15 and 37 DKFP in two games this season. They are second in QB pressures and third in QB knockdowns. They have allowed the second-lowest completion percentage and are first in interceptions and sacks. Now they get to face a Cardinals team that has the 23rd-ranked offensive line according to PFF and will likely be chasing points all afternoon.
Other Options – Chiefs D/ST ($3,900), Dolphins D/ST ($3,600), Patriots D/ST ($3,500), Seahawks D/ST ($3,200)
Value
Titans D/ST at Cleveland Browns, $3,000 – The Titans have one of the most stout run defenses in the league. There’s a good chance they make Cleveland one-dimensional this week, which could be an issue for the Browns because Deshaun Watson ($6,100) has been bad to start the season and could have difficulty taking advantage.
Other Options – Bills D/ST ($2,900), Jets D/ST ($2,800)
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is sontzu) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
