As expected, Week 1 of the NFL season was an up-and-down rollercoaster. We saw Joe Burrow have one of the worst games of his career, Aaron Rodgers get ruled out for the rest of the season, and the Super Bowl champions starting 0-1 while missing Taylor Swift’s new boyfriend. Now we move on to the drama of Week 2, where the Eagles got the ball rolling with a 34-28 win over the Vikings. My picks started hot last week, going 5-1. I hope that this week can be just as profitable, and together, we can get some much-needed green slips on DraftKings Sportsbook. Below are my favorite prop bets for Week 2.
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OVER Picks
WR Zay Flowers Over 42.5 Rec Yds (-135)
Zay Flowers had a great NFL debut, catching nine balls for 78 yards in his first game. What was really impressive from a gambling perspective, was to see that he was targeted 10 times in the win over Houston. The next highest-targeted player on the team was Odell Beckham Jr., who was targeted only three times. The Ravens have shown right off the bat that Flowers is their top dog in the receiver room. However, the team was missing TE Mark Andrews in Week 1, who is listed as questionable for this Sunday. If Andrews returns, there’s a good chance he will resume his role as the team’s top receiving threat, but even with the possible return of Andrews, 42.5 yards seems like too small of a number for a guy who had almost double that total the week before.
RB Christian McCaffrey Over 69.5 Rush Yds (-115)
Christian McCaffrey is one of my favorite picks for this week because of the amount of production in Week 1. The Steelers defense are no scrubs, finishing as the ninth-best defense against the run in 2022. Despite that, McCaffrey gashed them for 152 yards and a touchdown in Week 1, averaging an impressive 6.9 yards per carry along the way. He rushed the ball 22 times last week, and if they keep giving him that kind of volume, he’ll get over the 69.5-yard mark easily. Leading back to the 2022 playoffs, McCaffrey has hit the over on this number in three of his last four starts. He led all players in rushing yards after Week 1, and I fully expect him to be in the same position next week.
WR Stefon Diggs Over 77.5 Rec Yds (-110)
Stefon Diggs was very impressive in the Monday night football loss to the Jets, hauling in 10 catches for 102 yards and a touchdown. He did all of this against one of the best secondaries in the league, as the Jets finished third in passing yards against last season. Diggs was targeted a whopping 13 times, which shows that Buffalo are going to try to get him the ball no matter who is lining up across from him. This week, it’s a Raiders defense that was terrible against the pass last year, finishing 29th in the league in that category. The Raiders defense held up well against the Broncos, but the Buffalo Bills offense should present a much tougher test, especially in their home opener. In his last four games leading back to the 2022 postseason, Diggs has gone over this number in three of those games.
UNDER Picks
RB Cam Akers Under 31.5 Rush Yds (-110)
Akers prop total has plummeted dramatically since last week from 64.5 to 31.5. Even so, as the old saying goes, “If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.” Even with 22 rushing attempts in the opener, Akers still did not get over the 31.5-yard mark. He had a miserable day, finishing with 29 yards and averaging 1.3 yards a carry. This week, he’s matched up against the best team against the run in Week 1, the San Francisco 49ers. The 49ers held the Steelers to 41 total rushing yards in Week 1. Another problem for Akers is his fellow running back Kyren Williams, who had a much better game last week, carrying 15 times for 52 yards and two touchdowns. Williams averaged 3.5 yards per carry, 2.2 more per carry than Akers. Williams seems like the more explosive back, and I wouldn’t be shocked if he gets more touches than Akers in Week 2. Either way, I’ll take the under all day here with that 49ers front seven.
QB Zach Wilson Under 180.5 Passing Yds (-130)
Zach Wilson has had a tough start to his NFL career, and it doesn’t get any easier this week, facing off against a Dallas team that just completely embarrassed Daniel Jones and the Giants on national television. Jones was held to 104 passing yards in Week 1 and also threw two interceptions. Zach Wilson went below this total in Week 1, where he played all but four offensive snaps, throwing for only 140 yards in the win. The Jets have shown they can win with defense and running the ball, and that’s what I expect them to lean on in Week 2. Going back to last season, Wilson has failed to reach this total in six of his last eight starts. The Jets will likely lean on running backs Breece Hall and Dalvin Cook, keeping the ball out of Wilson’s hands at any opportunity they can. I think the under hits comfortably here as the Dallas defense continues to show how legit they are in 2023.
QB Sam Howell Under 200.5 Passing Yds (-115)
Sam Howell has only started two games in his NFL career, and luckily for him, both have been at home. The first was last year, at home to the Cowboys, where he went under this total in a win. Then, last week, he barely went over the total in a win at home against the Cardinals, throwing for 202 yards. Over the two starts, he has averaged 185.5 yards per game. Now, he will make his first start on the road, going to Mile High Stadium in Denver, not an easy place to play. The Broncos have a good pass defense, finishing 12th against the pass in 2022. Last week, they were also at home as they barely held Raiders QB Jimmy Garoppolo under this number, as Jimmy G finished with 200 yards. I think the Broncos bounce back this week after starting 0-1 and hold Howell below 200.5 yards on their way to the win.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is ciarandoyle77) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skills and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
