We’ve got a small MLB slate taking place past 7:00 p.m. ET this evening, and it might get even smaller with the amount of rain expected in Colorado. Still, with hundreds of props available on the DraftKings Sportsbook, there’s no shortage of lines on the diamond.
Let’s break down a couple of my favorite spots.
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Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Sox
Kenta Maeda Over 15.5 Outs Recorded (+105)
Maeda does not generally work deep into games. Heck, he’s thrown just 89.0 innings in his 18 starts this season — an average of only 4.9 innings per outing. Still, it’s not like the veteran has never pitched into the sixth. Though Maeda’s failed to hit the over on this prop in four of his last five appearances, the RHP threw at least six frames in five of his seven starts from June 4 to July 10. If anything, his recent early exits have been more performance-based than rest-oriented, as Maeda’s struggled to a 6.56 ERA dating back to August 16. Has he thrown 100 pitches at any point in 2023? No. Yet it’s clear that Rocco Baldelli is more than willing to lengthen Maeda’s leash when it’s warranted.
Tonight it will be warranted. There’s a couple things you need to know about Maeda’s matchup before we go any further. It has been a dark season for the White Sox and September has certainly been no exception. Since September 1, Chicago sits dead-last in baseball in both wOBA (.269) and wRC+ (66), so it should come as no surprise that it also ranks 30th in total runs scored within that same span (43). Crucially, the White Sox sit third in swing rate for the month (50.9%), as well, which should translate into short counts and quick at-bats for Maeda. That means a smaller pitch count, which means more length.
Texas Rangers at Toronto Blue Jays
First 5: Under 3.5 (+105)
On paper, these are two of the better lineups in the American League, but injuries and underperformance have been defining both of these franchises for the past few weeks. Let’s start with the Blue Jays. On Wednesday, Toronto was shutout for the ninth time since June 19 — the most of any AL team within that span of time. Overall, the Jays’ 123 wRC+ in September seems pretty solid, yet taking that figure at face value is a mistake. Toronto’s offensive statistics in the month are inflated by a series at Coors Field and beating up on the weak bullpens of the Athletics and Royals. As they’ve shown all year, the Jays have struggled with the bats as their schedule has become more difficult in recent days.
As for the Rangers, this is a lineup beset by injuries, with Josh Jung (thumb), Adolis Garcia (knee) and Leody Taveras (undisclosed) are all currently unavailable. However, specific to Thursday, the presence of Kevin Gausman is the biggest reason to doubt Texas’ run-scoring potential. Not only have the Rangers been far better at hitting LHPs in 2023 than RHPs, but Gausman is in the midst of another fantastic campaign, leading all American League starters in FIP (2.83) and fWAR (5.2). When these two teams met back on June 16, Gausman held a much healthier Texas lineup to a single run over six innings. I expect to see something similar this evening.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is theglt13) and I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
