Squeezed in-between fantastic Week 2 and 4 college football slates, we have a bit calmer of a Week 3 card on DraftKings Sportsbook. That said, some spots jump out this week, as well as a future that I don’t think was appropriately adjusted from what we saw Week 2.
My 2023 college football betting record entering Week 3 is 7-9 (-5.2u).
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Virginia at Maryland (Friday 7:00 pm ET)
Maryland Team Total OVER
As I write this on Thursday afternoon, the Terps team total over sits at 31.5 (-105). That was priced at -115 a day earlier, and the total continues to get bet down. I’ll post on Twitter if/when I play this before the game, but I’m holding out for a 30.5 if we can get it — landing 31 on four touchdowns as a field goal seems like a reasonable outcome.
As for the analysis on the game, Virginia has just a dreadful defense. They allowed 49 to a Tennessee team with a lot of firepower in the opener, but the Vols came back the next week to scored just 30 at home the following week versus Austin Peay. While James Madison is a respectable squad, UVA went on to give up 36 points at home to them in a loss in Week 2.
Meanwhile, Maryland has been consistently putting up points. The Terps scored exactly 38 points in each home game thus far, going up against Towson and Charlotte. Obviously, the level of competition goes up a little bit with Virginia, but the Terps also let their foot off the gas in both games that they scored 38 in.
Tennessee at Florida (Saturday 7:00 pm ET)
Florida +7 (-120) — 1.5-units
This is a really interesting spot. I don’t have a ton of love for the Tennessee offense, which is capable of big plays, but not nearly as consistent at moving the ball as it was in 2022. The perception is down on Florida after an embarrassing showing at Utah in a national Thursday night opener.
That said, I want to take the points in a rivalry game like this at The Swamp. As Brad Powers pointed out, the Vols have never been favored by this many at Florida, and the two times they were not a dog, they lost outright. Historical stats do us no good here, but I do think it highlights just how rare it is for Tennessee to be in this spot, and I think it’s highly overvaluing them.
Expect the Gators to step up on defense and give Tennessee a much tougher time than it has seen all season. Cut down on some of the mental errors made at Utah, and the Gators will have a chance to win this one outright. Consider some ML, and this also may be a game I fire on the under.
This number is 6.5 across the board now, but don’t be shy to use the alternate spreads tab. Gets us a key half point here.
South Alabama at Oklahoma State (Saturday 7:00 pm ET)
South Alabama +7.5 (-120) — 1.5-units
South ‘Bama was a pretty sharp dog in the season opener against Tulane, but fell short in a 20-point loss. I think that has the market a little low on them in this spot, priced similarly at Oklahoma State — which is not the same as Tulane.
The Cowboys are off to a 2-0 start, but neither win has been very impressive. Specifically a road win as a short favorite over an Arizona State team that absolutely stinks. This is going to be far stiffer competition for OKST, which has gotten shaky quarterback play to say the least. Spending a bit of juice here on an alternate spread to get the hook on a TD spread.
Pittsburgh at West Virginia (Saturday 7:30 pm ET)
WVU +1 (-110) — 1-unit
WVU ML (-145) — 0.75-units
I played West Virginia as a short home dog on Tuesday in our DK Network betting group, and the number has since taken a lot of sharp money. I was planning to add to the play, and still will as -145 ML favorites.
The Backyard Brawl returned last season with Pitt having home field, and the Panthers hung on in a nail biter than required a massive interception. Now the rivalry shifts to Morgantown, setting up a prime revenge spot for the Mountaineers.
Pitt is coming off a pretty disappointing home loss to Cincinnati, and while it was a lookahead spot, that doesn’t make this game any easier for the Panthers. WVU has revenge on its mind, and already had a great early season test going up against Penn State on the road. The Mountaineers have a dominant offensive line, which should really propel the run game, not to mention it seems like the passing game might’ve found something last week.
TCU at Houston (Saturday 8:00 pm ET)
Houston +7.5 (-110) — 1.5-units
I’m pretty low on TCU after what we saw in their only real game this season. They could score against Colorado, but I don’t think the Buffs have much of a defense. TCU couldn’t stop anything on defense, and I think that’ll be a problem here in the first road game of the season.
Meanwhile, the overall perception of Houston is down because of an overtime road loss at Rice last week. However, Rice seems pretty solid. The Owls gave Texas a much tougher time than expected in Week 1, then pulled a home upset last week. Houston earned a home win over UTSA as a dog in Week 1, and I think this is another nice buy-low spot on the Cougars.
Texas To Win Big 12 Championship Game (-130) — 2-units
You never want to overreact to one game, but that was a monster road win for the Longhorns — the last team to win at Alabama was Joe Burrow’s undefeated LSU squad. While it does nothing for Texas in the Big 12 standings, it absolutely shows us that this team is for real.
Then we take a step back and look at the rest of the conference … not much going on, besides a decent start for Oklahoma. Texas is now tied with FSU for the third-lowest odds to win it all. This team is not going to collapse to the point that it doesn’t make the conference championship game, and when the Longhorns are there, they aren’t going to be dogs.
Pulling the trigger on this play now for 2-units, and expect to have a very good price come the first weekend in December.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.
