The 2023 NFL regular season got underway on Sunday and we already saw the reigning MVP Patrick Mahomes in action on Thursday night. The Kansas City Chiefs lost that opener to the Detroit Lions and while it’s early, that could open up a path for a competitive MVP race in 2023. We’re going to recap Week 1 and whose stock is up and which players had theirs drop down.
2023 NFL MVP Stock Watch
Stock Up
Christian McCaffrey and Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers
Purdy and CMC accounted for most of the offense in the 49ers’ easy win over the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 1. Purdy completed 19/29 passes for 220 yards and two TDs in the win. He’s on a pretty remarkable run since last season when he replaced Jimmy G at QB. Purdy entered Week 1 at +5000 to win MVP and those odds have moved to +4000 on Monday morning.
For CMC, it was a vintage performance. McCaffrey gave us a highlight reel TD run and finished with 152 yards on 22 carries plus three catches for 17 yards. CMC entered Week 1 at +8000 to win MVP. Those odds went up to +6500 though it’s somewhat tough envisioning CMC doing enough to win MVP. But if he keeps posting these numbers, eclipses 2,000 total yards and racks up 15-20 TDs, he’ll have an argument.
Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers
Another long-shot and it’s a bit of an overreaction, but Love looked like a starting QB on Sunday in the Packers’ 38-20 win over the Bears. Love completed 15/27 passes for 245 yards and three TDs. He made a handful of nice plays outside the pocket and didn’t make any mistakes early in the game. After the Bears cut the Packers’ lead to 24-14 in the third quarter, Love put together a quick TD drive that killed any momentum Chicago had.
If the Packers aren’t as bad as people think (which was kind of egregious to begin with), then they should compete for the NFC North division title. The defense looks improved and had no issues containing QB Justin Fields. It’s still a long-shot for Love to win MVP. He’s off to a good start and his odds moved from +6000 to +4500 on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins
We should probably mention the reason Tua finished with 466 passing yards: Tyreek Hill. Tagovailoa had three TDs and one INT in the Dolphins’ 36-34 win over the Chargers in Week 1. Hill accounted for almost half of those yards (215) and two of three TDs. As a result, Tua’s MVP odds jumped from +2200 to +700, which feels like a gross overreaction.
Tagovailoa will likely put up stats but a lot needs to happen within the AFC East for him to win MVP. If the Dolphins win the division and Tagovailoa throws for 5,000 yards and 35-40 TDs, he’d have a case. The injuries remain a concern and the odds don’t offer much value after his big game. Wait and see how a few more weeks go before jumping on Tua MVP futures. Hill went from +15000 to +5000 and feels like a better bet at the moment.
Stock down
Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals couldn’t have been worse in Week 1. Cincinnati failed to score a touchdown in a 24-3 loss to the Cleveland Browns. The Bengals’ offensive line remains an issue; Burrow was sacked twice and the Browns had 10 QB hits. Burrow finished 14/31 with 82 yards. That’s it. Burrow somehow threw Tee Higgins’ way eight times and none of those targets resulted in a catch. It’s a bit concerning but the Bengals should be able to shake off this performance and get Burrow going.
Despite the miserable game, Burrow remains the same +750 to win NFL MVP this season. This has more to do with the fact that the books can’t drop his odds this early in the season. Burrow could very easily shake this off and look like the MVP candidate we expected. Remember, he dealt with that calf injury most of training camp and preseason, so that likely was the issue here.
Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys
It’s crazy to think a QB who was on a team that won 40-0 on Sunday Night Football would have his stock go down for MVP. But Prescott may be too overshadowed by the Cowboys’ defense this season. Dallas should have the best defensive unit in the NFL all season. Prescott finished 13/24 for 143 yards in the victory. The Cowboys ran the ball 30 times and the defense accounted for two scores. Prescott may put together a fine season. But when pointing to any Cowboys success this season, it’ll be the defense first and Prescott second (or even third, or fourth … maybe even fifth).
Justin Fields, Chicago Bears
We saw flashes of what Fields could be in 2022. He finished with over 1,100 rushing yards and eight TDs last season, also throwing for 2,242 yards and 17 TDs in 15 games. In Week 1, we did not see the passer/decision-maker that has what it takes to win an MVP. Sure, Fields will be a fantasy football stud most weeks when he rushes for over 100 yards with a few TDs. Those games will happen. We should also see him struggle to throw the ball consistently and be a concern for defenses in the passing game. It also looks like the Bears aren’t getting out of the NFC North basement, either.
