Monday typically means a travel day around MLB, but thanks to the Braves and Phillies squaring off in a doubleheader today, we’ve got a full 15-game schedule of baseball on September 11. That means plenty of action, and also plenty of options for those looking for some profitable player props. To help you sift through it all, here are three of our favorite plays of the day, with odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
MLB player prop bets: Monday, September 11
Brandon Woodruff, under 7.5 strikeouts (-115)
Woodruff has been awfully good for the Brewers of late, with just three total runs allowed across his last three starts — and strikeout totals that have cleared this number in two of those three. So why am I fading him here? For starters, eight Ks is a lot; Woodruff has only done it four times in eight starts overall this season. More importantly, though, is the matchup: The Miami Marlins have been a contact-oriented team all year, and that’s been true recently as well, with a 17.8% strikeout rate against righties over the last two weeks that ranks among the five lowest in all of baseball. If that rate holds up tonight, Woodruff will have a tough time hitting this mark even if he goes very deep into this game.
Mason Miller, under 3.5 strikeouts (-110)
It’s great to have Miller back, as one of baseball’s best pitching prospects will be making his first start in months after an elbow injury cut his sensational debut season short. Two things are working against him here, though. The first: the Astros, who enter this game on a heater at the plate — Houston has the league’s lowest K rate (11.8%) and highest OPS (1.012) against right-handed pitching over the last two weeks. The second: How long will Miller be allowed to go? Oakland will obviously want to be very careful with the future of their rotation, and the righty hasn’t thrown more than 45 pitches since mid-May. It’s hard to see him cracking the 50-pitch mark tonight, which will likely limit him to around three innings — and makes it pretty unlikely that he’ll hit at least four strikeouts.
Seiya Suzuki and Ian Happ, over 1.5 total bases (+220)
A trip to Coors Field figures to be just the cure to what’s ailed a Cubs offense that’s been oddly middling of late. Rockies lefty Kyle Freeland has a 5.96 ERA over his last four starts and has allowed a whopping .911 OPS to right-handed batters this year, putting several Chicago righties in great position tonight. Foremost among them: Suzuki, who’s finally caught fire after a frustrating start to 2023 and is hitting .410/.439/.769 with two homers and six doubles over his last 10 games. Happ, meanwhile, is slugging .475 over his last 26 games and is 3-for-8 with a homer lifetime against Freeland.
