UPDATE: We have our first upset of the 2023 NFL season. The Detroit Lions went into Arrowhead and beat the Kansas City Chiefs in the Week 1 opener. They weren’t the heavy pick this week, but a modest group of picks in most leagues likely were eliminated with this result. Don’t forget to get your Sunday picks in if you haven’t yet!
Welcome back to the NFL! The 2023 season kicks off Thursday night when the Chiefs host the Lions and that means it’s time once again to start working on your Survivor picks. Most folks skip on Thursday games, particularly early in the year, but it’s a good time to start figuring out your options to start the season. If you don’t have a contest to join, DraftKings Sportsbook is offering four different contests with $1, $100, and $1,000 entry fees.
For those who have not played before, Survivor is a contest in which you pick one team to win each week. If your team wins in Week 1, you advance and can make a pick in Week 2. If your team loses (or in some contests, finishes in a tie) you are eliminated. Some leagues offer double elimination as an option. The biggest caveat is that in most leagues you cannot pick the same team twice during the season. There are assorted other alternatives for these contests, but those are the biggest rules.
I’ll be here each week during the season to offer up Survivor advice each week. I’ll have safe picks, sleeper picks, and potential trap picks as you make your weekly decisions. I’m in various contests, but will continue offering picks even after my inevitable elimination.
Safest picks
This is the lone double digit point spread in Week 1. The Texans have some intriguing young talent, and while they could be competitive in DeMeco Ryans’ first season, they’re going to lose a lot of games. The Ravens are looking good and if you want to play it safe, you can go with the crowd on this one. The better bet is to save the Ravens for later in the season.
Best value picks
Commanders over Cardinals
Vikings over Bucs
The consensus is that the Cardinals are going to be bad, and arguably the worst in the league. The Commanders don’t have a strong QB position, but their defense and run game should be enough to get them a fairly easy win in this one. Elsewhere, the Vikings should be a solid team, and they face a rebuilding Bucs squad that is hoping for anything from Baker Mayfield. The Vikings are a strong play without many great uses for them later in the season.
Trap pick
Any divisional game
There’s a lengthy list of divisional matchups with decent-sized point spreads. The Seahawks are 5.5-point home favorites against the Rams. The Jaguars are 4.5-point road favorites against the Colts. The Broncos are 3.5-point home favorites against the Raiders. The Seahawks-Rams game is intriguing given how bad the Rams might be, but there’s nothing in these games that you need to be picking right out of the gate.