As the Houston Texans open the 2023 season with a new quarterback in CJ Stroud, there remains an open position battle for the role of WR1. Following the departure of their leading receiver from last season, Nico Collins has a chance to elevate himself into a leading role in the passing game. Is Week 1 too early for fantasy managers to plug him into lineups, or does his upside alone present a compelling case to start him?
Fantasy Football analysis: Texans WR Nico Collins
In spite of producing below-average fantasy production in his first two seasons with Houston, Collins has flashed his fantasy relevance on a couple of rare occasions. In 2022 he saw minor increases in targets (66), receptions (37), receiving yards (481), and touchdowns (2). In PPR leagues he finished as WR77 with an average of 9.0 fantasy points per game.
Start or sit in Week 1 PPR leagues?
Sit. Collins has some intriguing upside when it comes to expanding his role in the Texans’ receiving game, but until it comes to fruition, fantasy managers are better off playing it safe. Brandin Cooks held a dominant 23.5 percent target share with the Texans last season, but with his departure, it should open up more targets for Collins. Last year, Collins averaged 6.6 targets per game and 3.7 receptions per game.
Unfortunately, that latter stat is not going to cut it in PPR leagues. His reception volume could very well increase, but for now, he’s too risky to start whether in smaller or larger PPR leagues.
Start or sit in Week 1 standard leagues?
Sit. Collins has shown flashes of being a capable wide receiver in fantasy leagues. Over nine games last season, he averaged seven targets per game. From Weeks 10 through 13, he averaged nine targets per game and produced 19 receptions and two touchdowns. And yet in standard leagues, he finished as WR76 and averaged just 6.0 fantasy PPG. Much like his value in PPR, time will tell if he can capitalize on the opportunity ahead of him. For now, he presents high risk in both smaller and larger leagues.
Player(s) you would start ahead of Nico Collins
Gabe Davis and Michael Thomas are worth consideration before rolling with Collins. Both Davis and Thomas are long-tenured players with their teams, and aside from some injury concerns, both have been proven fantasy players in regard to production. They are both worth taking a flyer on before Collins, especially Thomas now that he has a better quarterback in Derek Carr throwing him the ball.