NFL Best Bets: Top Prop Bet Predictions for Week 1 on DraftKings Sportsbook

Football is back. We’ve waited 209 days since the Chiefs beat the Eagles 38-35 to win their third Super Bowl in franchise history. Now, we look forward to a 15-game slate over the weekend with plenty of opportunities to find some winners on DraftKings Sportsbook. So let’s get started and dive in. Below are my favorite prop bets for the opening weekend of NFL football.

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OVER Picks

WR Jaylen Waddle Over 64.5 Rec Yds (-125)

This seems like a low number for Jaylen Waddle, who finished seventh in receiving yards during the 2022 campaign, averaging 79.8 yards a game over the season. Waddle did that while not having his starting Quarterback, Tua Tagovailoa, for all of the season. Tua played 12 full games last year, and in those 12 games, Waddle went over 64.5 rec yards 10 times. Tua was seventh in passing yards per game while healthy, so the opportunities for Waddle this year should be plentiful. While having Tyreek Hill on the other side does take away some potential targets for Waddle, he still found a way to produce in the same situation last year. The running back room is slightly suspect in Miami, with Raheem Mostert leading the way, so look for the Dolphins to throw the ball a ton this year. Waddle is now going into his third season, where many players can take another big step towards stardom. With Tua fully healthy for Week 1, I think the over hits here for the third-year receiver.

RB Tony Pollard Over 68.5 Rush Yds (-125)

Tony Pollard spent a lot of last year in the shadow of Ezekiel Elliott but is now the clear starting running back for Dallas after Elliott was cut by the team and signed a deal with the New England Patriots. Pollard was remarkable last year as the backup, rushing over 1,000 yards and averaging 5.2 yards a carry on his way to doing so. Even as the secondary option, he went over 68.5 rush yards in eight of his 16 games last season. Owner Jerry Jones has spoken this offseason about their new “Dak Friendly” offense, which makes it safe to assume the team plans to run the ball even more this year to avoid some of the interceptions that plagued the team in 2022. Dallas matches up in a divisional game this week against the Giants, who were not great at stopping the run last year, giving up the fifth most rushing yards in the league. I think the Cowboys will try to establish their running game early this year, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Pollard go over the 100-yard mark on Sunday night football.

QB Matthew Stafford Over 223.5 Passing Yds (-115)

Matthew Stafford is back and healthy, and I’m going to ride with the over for him in Week 1. Although there are huge doubts over how good the Rams will be this year, I think it could end up helping us. I expect the Rams to be trailing in a bunch of games this year, which means a higher likelihood they will throw the ball to try and cut down leads. The Rams were also terrible last year, and in the nine games that Stafford was healthy, he went over 223.5 yards six times. Cooper Kupp being ruled out doesn’t help, but Stafford should have just enough help to get over this number. Seattle isn’t a formidable pass defense, finishing 17th last year in passing yards against. I think this could be a game where the Rams lose by multiple touchdowns and Stafford also hits this number comfortably because of how many times they’ll throw the ball. In the nine games he played last year, he averaged 231.9 yards per game. I think it could be nerve-wracking, but I’ll take Stafford to go over this number.

UNDER Picks

QB Kenny Pickett Under 219.5 Passing Yds (-115)

I think it’s fair to say Pickett struggled in his first NFL season. In 13 games, he threw for 2,404 yards, seven touchdowns and nine interceptions. That averages out to 184.9 yards per game, well below the 219.5 number. On top of that, Pickett and the Steelers open up against the best-scoring defense in football last year, the 49ers. The Steelers haven’t done much in terms of adding weapons this offseason, and the 49ers will have Nick Bosa ready for Sunday, who just got a $170 M extension. In 2022, Pickett played 12 full games, and in eight of those, he failed to reach the 220-yard mark. I think the under hits comfortably here, and ultimately the Steelers fall to 0-1.

QB Daniel Jones Under 206.5 Passing Yds (-115)

This may seem like a low number for Jones, but the numbers from last year tell a different story. He played 16 games, and in 12 of those, failed to gain over 206.5 yards. The Giants added TE Darren Waller in the offseason to help bolster the passing attack, but Waller is listed as questionable for this game, which would put the Giants in the same boat they were in last year if he’s not able to go. They also drafted WR Jalin Hyatt from Tennessee, but it’s a tough ask of a rookie in his first NFL game to make that big of an impact. The Cowboys were a stellar passing defense in 2022, giving up the eighth least passing yards to opposing quarterbacks. Last year, Jones went over this total in 1/2 games against Dallas, averaging 212 yards per game in those two contests.

RB Cam Akers Under 64.5 Rush Yds (-110)

The Rams are a total disaster right now, with an already questionable roster now missing their best offensive player in Cooper Kupp. As I mentioned earlier, I think there’s a good chance the Rams are throwing the ball a lot this year because of how bad they might possibly be. I think this can only hurt Cam Akers, who already struggled enough last year. In 2022, Akers failed to reach this total in 11 of his 15 games, including the first 11 games of the season in a row. Going on the road to Seattle is always tough and ideally, you want to get your run game going, but I think it’s possible they start trailing early and, therefore, abandon the run game. In 2022, the Rams were terrible at running the football, finishing 26th in the NFL in rush yards per game.

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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is ciarandoyle77) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skills and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.