The 2023 NFL season has arrived, and the opening game features the Kansas City Chiefs hosting the Detroit Lions on Thursday, September 7. Kickoff is scheduled to air on NBC at 8:20 p.m. ET.
According to DraftKings Sportsbook, the Chiefs enter as 4.5-point favorites following the Travis Kelce injury. In the sections below, we’ll analyze this matchup and offer our pick against the spread.
Update — TE Travis Kelce is trending toward being ruled out for TNF vs. the Lions. He’s going to push to play so it feels more like a game-time decision that Kelce being questionable. With that said, he could be closer to doubtful but the decision won’t be made until closer to kickoff. Either way, monitor the news for any relevant updates and act accordingly.
Chiefs vs. Lions, Week 1: Pick against the spread
The Chiefs initially entered the matchup as 6.5-point favorites earlier in the year, with the spread briefly rising to 7 before settling back to 6.5. According to VSiN, the public seems to favor the reigning Super Bowl champions, with 67% of tickets and 74% of the handle being placed on Kansas City against the spread earlier in the week.
As for the Lions, they’re poised for a strong season, especially after ending last year on a high note. They’re even favored to win the NFC North this time around. However, their periodic struggles on the road need to be addressed for that to happen, and this Week 1 matchup offers a prime opportunity to do so.
Detroit QB Jared Goff, in particular, has had difficulty in away games. Last year, he had a modest 87.4 passer rating with 6 touchdowns and 4 interceptions in eight road games, in contrast to a stellar 109.3 passer rating, 23 touchdowns, and just 3 interceptions at home in 2022. His performance could be a crucial factor in this game.
Kicking off the season, this promises to be a closely contested game. The Lions are entering the year with plenty to offer and are likely to play with hunger while showcasing their reinforced roster.
It’s worth noting that if we pick Detroit against the spread, they also have the benefit of a potential backdoor cover. This could happen if Kansas City eases up on defense toward the end of the game while leading by more than one score.
Taking all these factors into account, I anticipate a tight, competitive matchup and expect the Lions to cover the 4.5-point spread.
The Pick: Detroit +4.5