As the Kansas City Chiefs punched their ticket back to the mountaintop last season, it coincided with the late-season emergence of rookie running back Isiah Pacheco. As he enters year two he’s expected to remain a fixture in the Chiefs’ running game, however, the presence of Jerick McKinnon offers some questions about his fantasy upside on a weekly basis. How confident should fantasy managers be in starting Pacheco in Week 1?
Fantasy Football analysis: Chiefs RB Isiah Pacheco
Like so many players on the Chiefs’ offense, it was a tale of two halves when it came to Pacheco’s fantasy production in 2022. In Weeks 1 through 10, Pacheco was RB60 in fantasy points per game (3.9). And then from Week 12 to the end of the season, Pacheco (11.9 ppg) was a top-20 running back in fantasy. The rookie ended the 2022 campaign as RB37 in PPR leagues.
Start or sit in Week 1 PPR leagues?
Sit. The Lions‘ defense boasts a strong pressure rate which, subsequently, causes havoc for opposing running backs. That could mean Patrick Mahomes could instead opt to get them going in the passing game, however, that hasn’t been a strong suit of Pacheco since he joined Kansas City. Last season, he averaged just 0.8 receptions per game while finishing with 13 catches all season, which speaks to his reliance on the ground game.
Whether you’re in small leagues or are playing with 12 teams or more, relying on Pacheco seems like a risky bet when it comes to PPR value. You’re better off looking at more reliable pass-catchers at running back.
Start or sit in Week 1 standard leagues?
Sit. Even in standard leagues, Pacheco can be a risky play given Jerick McKinnon’s late-season emergence in 2022. From Week 12 to the end of the season, Pacheco (11.9 points per game) and McKinnon (16.5) were top-20 running backs, which likely frustrated fantasy managers with either one on their rosters.
At best Pacheco should be considered a flex option in Week 1, but that will only change if we begin to see more touches come his way over the season. If you’re in a 12 to 14-team league, Pacheco may be worth a look out of desperation only.
Player(s) you would start ahead of Isiah Pacheco
Dameon Pierce, J.K. Dobbins, or David Montgomery could be better options at running back in comparison to Pacheco. While neither three are on rosters that can match the firepower of the Chiefs, they at least have established roles and are less prone to variance when it comes to who allocates the most fantasy production.