The bottom is beginning to fall out for the Texas Rangers (76-61). After leading the American League West for most of the season, the Rangers have been stuck in free-fall for the better part of the past month, and enter play on Tuesday with a slim half-game lead on the Toronto Blue Jays for the last AL Wild Card spot. After dropping the series opener to the Houston Astros (78-61) on Monday, Texas will look to pick up a huge win over their division rival by sending Nathan Eovaldi (11-3, 2.69 ERA) to the mound in his return from the IL against lefty Framber Valdez (10-9, 3.38). First pitch from Globe Life Park is set for 8:05 p.m. ET.
The Astros are -115 moneyline favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook, while the Rangers are -105 underdogs. The run total is set at 9.
Astros-Rangers picks: Tuesday, September 5
Injury report
Astros
Day-to-day: RP Ryne Stanek (right ankle)
Rangers
Day-to-day: Max Scherzer (fatigue)
Out: UTIL Brad Miller (hamstring strain), INF Josh Jung (left thumb fracture)
Starting pitchers
Framber Valdez vs. Nathan Eovaldi
Valdez takes the hill after allowing four runs (two earned) in six innings against the Red Sox. Prior to that, he threw seven no-hit innings against the Tigers — the second time he held an opponenet hitless in a start in August, as he tossed a no-hitter against the Guardians on Aug. 1. Even with those two starts, though, he still finished August with a 3.67 ERA in six starts, as he had two starts where he allowed six earned runs. He allowed five runs (one earned) against the Rangers in April before allowed six runs in 3.2 innings against them in July.
Eovaldi takes the hill for the first time since July due to a right forearm strain. Prior to going on the shelf, Eovaldi was putting together one of the best seasons of his career on the back of a strong fastball, splitter and curveball. He’s made one start against Houston this year where he allowed two hits over seven scoreless innings.
Over/Under pick
I like this over, even if it looks a little steep at face value. Valdez has been a boom-or-bust pitcher over the past month, and has an expected ERA (4.19) that’s nearly a point higher than his actual ERA. That, coupled with the Rangers’ bullpen struggles over the past month (they have a 5.44 ERA over the past month), means that Tuesday night’s game could be a classic slugfest — especially if Eovaldi is rusty after so much time off.
Pick: Over 9
Moneyline pick
As mentioned above, the Rangers are in rough shape. But that’s where Eovaldi comes in. He was pitching like an All-Star prior to getting hurt, and I think that trend continues in his first start back. The Rangers bullpen will likely do everything in their power to blow it, but I think Texas guts out a win.
Pick: Rangers