Labor Day might signify the end of summer for students and teachers, but for me, as long as baseball is still being played, it’s the dog days. As per usual on a Tuesday, we’ve got a 15-game slate on this diamond this evening.
Here are a couple of my favorite bets.
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Philadelphia Phillies at San Diego Padres
Phillies ML (-105)
While it was certainly a fun debate throughout the offseason, we now know definitively that the Phillies are a better team than the Padres. So, while it isn’t insane to see Philadelphia as a slight road underdog to San Diego, it’s certainly a window of opportunity. The Phillies are 7-3 in their last 10 games. Across the last 30 days, Philadelphia leads baseball in ISO (.280), wOBA (.386) and wRC+ (144) — and it isn’t even particularly close in a couple of those categories. With Trea Turner and Bryce Harper suddenly looking like themselves, and Kyle Schwarber mashing long balls at a crazy rate, there just might not be a lineup with a higher ceiling in all of baseball.
Tonight’s pitching matchup is a little lopsided, too. Though Michael Lorenzen has had a few bumps in the road since his no-hitter, the RHP still owns a 2.91 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP dating back to the beginning of July. At the end of the day, Lorenzen is a serviceable MLB starter. Pedro Avila can not make the same claim. The reliever has been forced into the Padres’ rotation out of sheer desperation and it’s been quite apparent in his last two appearances. Opponents have combined to score 11 runs off of Avila in 7.1 innings of work. Now he has to face the hottest lineup in all of baseball? I don’t like his chances.
Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royals
Brady Singer Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+125)
After a rough start to the season — and an underwhelming performance in the WBC — Singer has been much better for the Royals the past couple of months. In particular, the RHP’s ability to generate swings and misses has returned, with Singer posting a notable 25.7% strikeout rate over his last seven starts. By comparison, Singer was only able to muster a 17.8% strikeout rate across his first 19 outings of 2023. Considering the former first-round pick managed a 24.2% strikeout rate in 153.1 innings in 2022, I’d say the version of Singer we’ve seen since mid-July is far more real than the one who struggled to being this year.
As such, this prop feels a little too low for my taste. I mean, it’s certainly not like the White Sox are the most contact-oriented team in baseball. At 23.7%, Chicago possesses the ninth-highest strikeout rate in the league, and it’s a mark that’s been relatively consistent throughout 2023. The reason for this? The White Sox come into play on Tuesday owning an MLB-high 36.6% chase rate. They also sit third in swinging strike rate at 12.8%. When a team is that poor at making swing decisions, strikeouts are almost a certainty.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is theglt13) and I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
