In Dennis Allen’s first season as head coach, the New Orleans Saints went 7-10 and finished third in the NFC South in 2022 despite an ongoing quarterback carousel of Andy Dalton, Taysom Hill, and Jameis Winston. The Saints’ defense held up their end of the bargain after being ranked ninth in defensive scoring, but a 22nd-ranked scoring offense hindered New Orleans’ full potential.
Saints Super Bowl odds: +3000
The Saints hold the 12th-best odds in the NFL to hoist the Lombardi Trophy and after boasting one of the league’s more well-rounded rosters over the years they finally answered their glaring hole on offense. After signing veteran quarterback Derek Carr in the offseason, New Orleans now has its most stable solution under center since the days of Drew Brees. Carr has looked solid in his limited playing time throughout the preseason, and the key will be for his comfortability and command of the offense to carry over into the regular season.
Health will be a pivotal factor for New Orleans to reach its full potential, namely in the case of wide receiver Michael Thomas. After playing in more than 15 games per season from 2016 to 2019, the three-time Pro Bowler has appeared in just 10 games over the last three seasons, which includes missing the entirety of the 2021 season. Having Thomas in the fold will be essential for the Saints to improve on its 16th-ranked passing offense last year (217.2 ppg).
Saints NFC South division title odds: +120
The Saints hold the best odds to win the NFC South, followed by the Atlanta Falcons (+215), Carolina Panthers (+415), and Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+800). New Orleans is coming off a third-place finish in the NFC South last season, and they last won the division back in 2020, which marked the end of a streak of four-consecutive seasons atop the NFC South.
New Orleans has the most well-rounded roster among the four NFC South teams and has a clear advantage at quarterback with a veteran in Carr. The Falcons’ Desmond Ridder enters as an unknown in his second season, while No. 1 overall pick Bryce Young could be working with a shaky offensive line, based on what we’ve seen in the preseason. Tampa Bay will rely on either Baker Mayfield or Kyle Trask, who have yet to prove effective at elevating an offense.
Saints win total odds: Over 9.5 (+105); Under 9.5 (-125)
While not a foregone conclusion, New Orleans’ roster advantage over their division counterparts gives them an excellent chance of logging six wins courtesy of playing the Falcons, Panthers, and Buccaneers each twice. From there on out, New Orleans could add at least four wins versus the likes of the Packers, Texans, Colts, and Bears, who enter the 2023 season with varying levels of uncertainty at quarterback. So long as Carr looks comfortable and in command of the offense, over 9.5 wins feels like a great value play in 2023.