In 2022, the New England Patriots kicked off the season with a promising 6-4 record. However, they stumbled in the latter part of the year, losing five of their final seven games. This stretch included a season-ending loss to the Buffalo Bills, resulting in an 8-9 overall record. Finishing third in the AFC East, the Patriots missed the playoffs for the second time in the past three years.
The odds heading into the 2023-24 season don’t suggest that New England will turn things around and make the postseason this upcoming year. We’ll take a look at those odds to win the Super Bowl, AFC East, and analyze the Patriots’ win total below.
Patriots Super Bowl odds: +6500
Frankly, the New England Patriots are not favored to contend for a Super Bowl in the 2023-24 season. According to DraftKings Sportsbook, their odds stand at +6500, giving them some of the longest odds in the AFC. Only the Las Vegas Raiders, Indianapolis Colts, and Houston Texans stand below them on the odds board. Even the Chicago Bears are viewed more favorably, with Super Bowl odds of +5000.
For the Patriots to defy these expectations, quarterback Mac Jones will need to elevate his game significantly. Last year, the team’s defense performed well, ranking in the upper half of the league for both scoring and total defense. Maintaining that defensive solidity is essential. While the Patriots should continue to focus on their strong running game, Jones must become more efficient and pose more of a threat in the passing game for the team to move in a positive direction.
Patriots AFC East division title odds: +800
In the AFC East, the Patriots appear to be the clear underdogs. Leading the pack, the Buffalo Bills are the favorites to win the division with +120 odds. Not far behind are the reinvigorated New York Jets, who now have Aaron Rodgers as their quarterback, standing at +270 odds. The Miami Dolphins are also strong contenders, with +300 odds, and seem well-positioned for another playoff run.
In contrast, the Patriots lack the star power and buzz that their divisional rivals command. New England relies on a straightforward strategy, focusing on a strong rushing attack and a quality defense to stay competitive in most games this season. The key issues are whether their defense can hold its own against the potent offenses in their division and beyond, and if their offense can muster enough firepower to pull off some surprise wins.
Patriots win total odds: Over 6.5 (-140)
Considering all factors, the Patriots’ projected win total of 6.5 seems undervalued. While they may not be the most eye-catching team, their solid defense should keep them in contention for at least seven wins this season.
Admittedly, they face a grueling schedule, particularly due to divisional matchups against the Bills, Dolphins, and Jets — as well as early-season encounters with the Eagles and Cowboys. However, the schedule starts to ease up come November, offering more favorable matchups.
I expect the Patriots to capitalize on games against teams like the Raiders, Commanders, Colts, and Broncos during this stretch. They also have a fair chance in toss-up games, such as home games against the Saints and Chargers, as well as away games against the Giants and Steelers.
Given the more favorable schedule in the latter part of the season, it might be wise to hold off on placing bets on the Patriots’ win total until November, when the odds could be more in their favor.