After the Reds rallied in walk-off fashion to salvage a split of Friday’s doubleheader, Cincy (70-67) will look to continue its playoff push against the Chicago Cubs (72-63) in another crucial game in the NL Wild Card race. First pitch from Great American Ball Park is set for 6:40 p.m. ET. Javier Assad (3-2, 2.96 ERA) gets the start for Chicago, while Cincy counters with lefty Andrew Abbott (8-4, 3.35).
The Cubs enter as narrow -115 favorites on the moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the Reds right behind at -105. The run total is set at 9.5. Despite last night’s win, Cincinnati remains a game back (two in the loss column) of both the Giants and Diamondbacks for a Wild Card spot, while Chicago dropped to 3.5 back of the Brewers for the NL Central lead.
Cubs-Reds picks: Saturday, September 2
Injury report
Cubs
Out: SP Marcus Stroman (ribs), RP Michael Fulmer (forearm)
Reds
Out: SP Hunter Greene (covid), RP Alex Young (hamstring), C Curt Casali (foot), 1B Joey Votto (shoulder), 2B Kevin Newman (oblique), 2B Jonathan India (foot), SS Matt McClain (oblique)
Starting pitchers
Javier Assad vs. Andrew Abbott
Assad has been a god-send for the Cubs since being thrust into the rotation due to Marcus Stroman’s injury, posting a 2.48 ERA over five starts in August — including seven one-run innings against the Pirates last time out. The righty doesn’t have the most overwhelming arsenal, but he keeps hitters off-balance well enough with his sinker and cutter to force lots of ground balls and weak contact (80th percentile in average exit velocity). Keeping the ball on the ground will be key in a place that’s as tough to pitch in as Great American Ball Park.
Abbott got off to a sensational start to his MLB career, but the former top prospect has come back to Earth a bit of late. The lefty had a 6.08 ERA in five August starts, with six runs allowed on 10 hits and a whopping seven walks in just 7.1 innings of work across his last two outings. Abbott has been prone to bouts of wildness even going back to his days in the Minors, and he hasn’t had the feel for his three offspeed pitches that we’ve grown accustomed to seeing. When he’s on, though, his arsenal is as good as just about anyone.
Over/Under pick
Yes, GABP is a scary place to pitch, but its reputation belies just how mediocre this Reds offense is right now — Cincy has scored more than three runs just three times in their last 13 home games. In fact, they rank in the bottom five overall in OPS since the start of August, and with Assad in a groove right now, I’m banking on another relatively low-scoring affair on Saturday.
Pick: Under 9.5
Moneyline pick
Assad has been the more consistent pitcher on the mound of late — Abbott’s awfully hard to trust until we see him get his command back — while the Cubs have the deeper lineup. I can understand why this one’s nearly a pick ‘em on the moneyline, but the fact remains that Chicago has the slight edge just about everywhere you look.
Pick: Cubs -115
