How the mighty have fallen.
A month ago, the Texas Rangers (75-58) were in first place in the AL West. Now they enter September in third place in the division and in sole possesion of the final Wild Card spot in the American League. They’ll look to get things back on track when they take on the scuffling Minnesota Twins (69-65), who hold a 5.0 game lead in the American League Central. Joe Ryan (9-8, 4.33 ERA) gets the start for the Twins, while Max Scherzer (12-5, 3.71 ERA) will toe the rubber for the Rangers. First pitch is scheduled for 8:05 p.m. ET.
The Rangers are -155 moneyline favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook, while the Twins are +130 underdogs. The total is set at 8.
Twins-Rangers picks: Friday, Sept. 1st
Injury report
Twins
Out: DH/OF Byron Buxton (right hamstring strain), 1B/OF Alex Kirilloff (right shoulder strain), UTIL Willi Castro (mild left oblique strain), 3B Jose Miranda (right shoulder impingement), SP Chris Paddack (Tommy John surgery)
Rangers
Out: SP Nathan Eovaldi (right forearm strain), INF Josh Jung (left thumb fracture)
Starting pitchers
Joe Ryan vs. Max Scherzer
The last time out, Ryan held the Twins to one run over five innings in his first start back from the injured list. Ryan was stuck in a bit of a rut prior to being put on the shelf with a groin injury, as the second-year pitcher had an ERA of 8.63 in his seven starts from June 27 to Aug. 2. Despite that, Ryan still ranks in the 82nd percentile in expected ERA (3.33) and the 78th percentile in expected batting average (.220).
Scherzer has looked like his vintage self with the Rangers, posting a 2.64 ERA in his first five starts (30 2/3 innings) with 40 strikeouts. He has a 3.71 ERA in 24 starts between the Mets and Rangers this season, and is seven innings away from equaling his innings total from last season. Scherzer is in the 85th percentile in expected ERA, the 89th in expected batting average and the 86th percentile in fastball run value.
Over/Under pick
I love this over play. This hit in three of the four games the two team’s played in last week, with the fourth game being a push. The Twins offense ranks fourth in the American League in home runs (184) while the Rangers are fifth (184), which could lead to tonight’s game turning into a track meet. Plus both offenses faced off against the opposing starter last week, which favors the offenses.
Pick: Over 8
Moneyline pick
The Rangers pick up a big win. Scherzer is more of a sure thing on the mound, and I’m expecting Texas offense to come out swinging after a sluggish series against the Mets.
Pick: Rangers