The Milwaukee Brewers and Philadelphia Phillies hook up in Wisconsin on Friday for a possible playoff preview as both teams look to improve their positioning in the playoff race and picture.
Philadelphia Phillies (-125, 7.5) vs. Milwaukee Brewers
The Phillies give Zack Wheeler the start on the mound, whose 3.59 ERA is deceiving as the advanced numbers show a different story — posting a 3.01 fielding independent with 10 strikeouts per nine innings while allowing 1.7 walks and 0.9 home runs per nine innings.
While the advanced numbers show positivity for Wheeler, he does enter Friday’s start having allowed at least three runs in six of his last 11 starts and has to face a Brewers offense that has further improved since the trade deadline.
Since August 3, the Brewers have averaged 5.4 runs per game — good for seventh in the league, but they do have to face a Phillies team that is registering 6.6 runs per game in this span, which ranks third among MLB teams.
Brewers starting pitcher Freddy Peralta will look to shut the Phillies down, who enters pitching the best he has all season long with three runs or fewer allowed in 11 of his last 12 starts with seven total runs allowed in his last six starts with nearly 14.8 strikeouts per nine innings and a 1.56 fielding independent in this stretch.
The Brewers also back up Peralta with the National League’s second-best bullpen since the All-Star Break, registering a 2.93 ERA while the Phillies bullpen has a 3.68 ERA, which ranks fourth in the National League in that span.
With the Phillies offense having a pretty big fall off on the road, averaging 5.2 runs per game with a .270 batteing average compared to 4.6 runs and a .251 batting average on the road, Peralta and the Brewers bullpen will guide the team to a victory on Friday.
The Play: Brewers +105
