Baseball’s two best teams kick off a titanic four-game series this weekend as the Atlanta Braves take on the Los Angeles Dodgers on Thursday night. First pitch of the opener from Dodger Stadium is set for 10:10 p.m. ET. NL Cy Young candidate Spencer Strider (15-4, 3.46 ERA) will take the mound for Atlanta while Los Angeles counters with righty Lance Lynn (6-9, 6.47).
The Dodgers’ scorching 24-4 record in August has them just four back of the Braves for the top seed in the NL, making this a crucial weekend for playoff positioning — and home-field advantage come October. L.A. took two of three from Atlanta earlier this season, meaning the Dodgers need just a split of these four games to take the season series and secure the tiebreaker.
The Braves enter as -148 favorites on the moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the Dodgers at +124. The run total is set at 8.5.
Braves-Dodgers picks: Thursday, August 31st
Injury report
Braves
Out: SP/RP Yonny Chirinos (elbow), OF Sam Hilliard (heel), SP Kyle Wright (shoulder), RP Nick Anderson (shoulder), RP Jesse Chavez (shin), RP Dylan Lee (shoulder)
Dodgers
Out: DH J.D. Martinez (groin), RP Joe Kelly (elbow), RP Yency Almonte (knee), SP/RP Michael Grove (lat), OF Jonny Deluca (hamstring)
Starting pitchers
Spencer Strider vs. Lance Lynn
After an up-and-down couple of months earlier this summer, Strider has been absolutely cooking in August; outside of a fluky six-run blowup against the Pirates back on August 7, the righty has allowed just two runs on 12 hits with a whopping 34 strikeouts over his other 27.2 innings this month. He dominated the Giants over his last two starts, with 18 strikeouts and one run allowed across 14 innings of work. The righty’s had some home run problems this season, largely due to some shaky command that can cause him to catch too much of the plate at times. When he’s on, though, he has the most electric stuff in the game, with a K rate and whiff rate that rank in the 99th percentile.
Lynn has been far better since coming from the White Sox to the Dodgers at the trade deadline, with a 4-0 record and 2.03 ERA in five starts with L.A. He was a bit shakier last time out at Fenway Park, allowing four runs (three earned) on 10 hits while striking out just a single batter over six innings, but he’d allowed just 17 hits and four runs over his first 25 innings with his new team. Like Strider, Lynn is prone to giving up the long ball — he leads the Majors with 34 homers allowed this season — but the Dodgers seem to have gotten him back on track, with far fewer pitchers left over the heart of the plate.
Over/Under pick
This is a brutally difficult call. Lynn and (especially) Strider have been nails of late, but both of these offenses rank in the top five in baseball against right-handed pitching this month — and they might be the two deepest lineups in the sport overall. Ultimately, though, I’m going with the under here: Strider is near-unhittable when he’s pitching like this, and while Lynn could implode in this spot, Atlanta has cleared this total in just four of their last 11 non-Coors Field contests.
Pick: Under 8.5
Moneyline pick
Lynn has been better with the Dodgers, but he regressed a bit last time out, and it’s hard to get the image of him getting rocked with the White Sox earlier this year out of our heads. The Braves crush mistakes better than any team in baseball, and I think Lynn makes a bit more than Strider tonight and allows Atlanta to strike first in this huge series.
Pick: Braves -148
