The identity of the Big 12 is undergoing a seismic change with four newcomers joining the league this year and four more making the jump from the Pac-12 next year. Of course, the upcoming 2023 season will serve as the swan song for the league’s two resident blue bloods.
Oklahoma and Texas are entering their final season in the league before departing for the SEC in 2024. These two programs have been the power players of the conference since it was founded in 1996 and the announcement of their departure in 2021 is still sending seismic ripple effects throughout the sport. On the field, the Longhorns are the preseason favorites to win the league as they boast a loaded roster that actually contend for a College Football Playoff berth.
The league’s middle class makes this one of the most interesting conferences in the country this year as any number of teams can emerge as Big 12 title contenders. Defending champion Kansas State could once again field a really strong team despite losing a number of key pieces from last year’s squad. The same goes for TCU, who made a surprise run to the College Football Playoff title game (final score withstanding). 2021 league champion Baylor could have a bounce back year after taking a step back last season while Texas Tech could take a giant step forward under second-year head coach Joey McGuire.
As mentioned before, the Big 12 is welcoming four new members to the league this year as BYU, Cincinnati, Houston, and UCF have all joined the party. It will be worth tracking how each of these programs navigate through their new environment and if any of them can contend for a conference title right out the gate.
Preseason Media Poll results
Texas Longhorns (41)
Kansas State Wildcats (14)
Oklahoma Sooners (4)
Texas Tech Red Raiders (4)
TCU Horned Frogs (3)
Baylor Bears
Oklahoma State Cowboys (1)
UCF Knights
Kansas Jayhawks
Iowa State Cyclones
BYU Cougars
Houston Cougars
Cincinnati Bearcats
West Virginia Mountaineers
() indicates number of first place votes
Preseason Win Totals from DraftKings Sportsbook
Texas: 9.5 (Over -140, Under +120)
Oklahoma: 9.5 (Over +100, Under -120)
Kansas State: 8.5 (Over +135, Under -155)
TCU: 7.5 (Over -130, Under +110)
Texas Tech: 7.5 (Over +110, Under -130)
Baylor: 7 (Over -120, Under +100)
Oklahoma State: 6.5 (Over -110, Under -110)
UCF: 6.5 (Over -175, Under +150)
Kansas: 6 (Over -125, Under +105)
BYU: 5.5 (Over +105, Under -125)
Cincinnati: 5.5 (Over +140, Under -165)
Iowa State: 5 (Over +115, Under -135)
Houston: 4.5 (Over -135, Under +115)
West Virginia: 4.5 (Over -140, Under +120)
Texas is loaded heading into its final year in the Big 12 and if there’s any year for the Longhorns to be “back”, it’s this one. The offense will be led by returning starter Quinn Ewers, who enters the year with the third highest odds to win the Heisman Trophy. Even with Bijan Robinson now in the NFL, he’ll have plenty of dangerous weapons at his disposal in the likes of receiver Xavier Worthy, receiver Adonai Mitchell, and tight end Ja’Tavion Sanders. Defensively, the UT is anchored by preseason Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year Jaylan Ford at linebacker and Byron Murphy II on the defensive line.
The Brent Venables era in Oklahoma got off to a rocky start last year as the program experienced its first losing season since 1998. Dillon Gabriel is back at quarterback and had success operating Jeff Lebby’s offense last season, throwing for over 3,000 yards and 25 touchdowns. The Sooners’ defense was a horror show at times last year, best exemplified by them getting embarrassed by TCU and Texas in back-to-back weeks. Co-defensive coordinators Ted Roof and Todd Bates are back to try to improve the unit and they’ll at least have a rising defensive lineman in Ethan Downs to anchor the front.
Kansas State will try to defend its league championship this year and will have to do so without several key pieces from last year’s title team. Stalwarts like running back Deuce Vaughn, defensive end Felix Anudike-Uzomah, cornerback Julius Brents, and wide receiver Malik Knowles have all moved on to the NFL, leaving several holes for Chris Klieman’s staff to fill. However, senior quarterback Will Howard is returning this season and he came on for the Wildcats towards the end of last season in place of an injured Adrian Martinez. Howard and the entire offense should benefit from having All-American guard Cooper Beebe holding things down at guard.
Key Transfers
WR Adonai Mitchell: Georgia to Texas
QB Alan Bowman: Michigan to Oklahoma State
QB Donovan Smith: Texas Tech to Houston
RB Dominic Richardson: Oklahoma State to Baylor
RB Treshaun Ward: Florida State to Kansas State
LB Dasan McCullough: Indiana to Oklahoma
WR Xzavier Henderson: Florida to Cincinnati
WR JoJo Earle: Alabama to TCU
DB Keyshawn Cobb: Buffalo to West Virginia
DB Jalen Catalon: Arkansas to Texas
Best bets
Kansas State Over 8.5 wins (+135)
Even with all of the losses from last year’s Big 12 title team, I’m still bullish on K-State getting to nine wins this year. The veteran Howard could take a huge leap forward as the Day 1 starter and FSU transfer Treshaun Ward could serve as an adequate substitute for Deuce Vaughn. An early season victory over border rival Missouri could propel the Cats into conference play and with a few hiccups factored in, I think they can get their ninth victory against rival Kansas in mid-November. Stop sleeping on Chris Klieman.
Oklahoma Under 9.5 wins(-120)
Let me reiterate. Oklahoma brought back Ted Roof as a co-defensive coordinator after last year’s trainwreck. Even with a fairly manageable schedule in the Big 12 on paper, the Sooners will still most likely have to outgun teams in several shootouts to win. Even with some expected improvement, going from six wins to 10 wins is a heck of a jump for a team where one side of the ball could still be a liability. Take the under on the Sooners.
The 2023 Big 12 champion will be… Texas
“Texas is back” jokes aside, this should be the year where the Longhorns finally put it all together. The team is loaded with talent on both sides of the ball and even if he doesn’t produce at a Heisman Trophy level, Ewers should to still be able to ride the receiving weapons he has straight to the Big 12 title game at Jerry World. UT better have a sense of urgency when it comes to winning a conference title this season because where they’re going in 2024 and beyond, that proposition will become even more difficult.