The San Diego Padres (61-70) enter September with a faint postseason heartbeat, as they open play on Monday eight games back in the Wild Card race. They’ll look to gain a game in that race when they take on the St. Louis Cardinals (56-75) in the opener of a three-game set on Monday. Cy Young candidate Blake Snell (10-9, 2.73) gets the ball for the Padres, while struggling veteran Adam Wainwright (3-9, 8.61 ERA) will get the start for the Cardinals. First pitch from Busch Stadium is set for 7:45 p.m. ET.
San Diego enters as -198 moneyline favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook, while St. Louis is the +164 underdog. The total is set at 9.5.
Padres-Cardinals picks: Monday, August 28
Injury report
Padres
Out: INF Jake Cronenworth (right wrist fracture), RP Tim Hill (sprained left ring finger), SP Joe Musgrove (right shoulder capsule inflammation), 1B/DH Ji Man Choi (left rib-cage strain), RP Drew Pomeranz (left flexor tendon surgery)
Cardinals
Out: RP Guillermo Zuñiga (right forearm strain), OF Lars Nootbaar (lower abdomen contusion), SP Matthew Liberatore (low back tightness), OF Dylan Carlson (ankle soreness, oblique strain), SP/RP Jake Woodford (right shoulder strain)
Starting pitchers
Blake Snell vs. Adam Wainwright
Snell’s putting together an incredible statistical season, as he leads all of baseball in both ERA (2.73) and walks (80). Snell’s posteda quality start in his last three outings but boasts a 3.91 ERA over his last four starts, as he allowed two runs in two of those starts and three runs in the other two. Despite never pitching seven innings this season, Snell’s a leading Cy Young candidate in a bit of a depressed race, and is coming off a start where he allowed three runs in six innings with eight strikeouts in a loss to the Marlins. Snell has a 1.80 ERA in 20 career innings against the Cardinals.
Wainwright’s final season hasn’t gone as planned, as the 41-year-old has an ERA approaching nine and has allowed six or more earned runs in three of his last four starts. Wainwright ranks in the bottom percentile in expected batting average, strikeout rate, expected slugging, whiff rate and fastball velocity.
Over/Under pick
While Wainwright is one bad inning away from helping the Padres hit this over himself, I’m taking the under. Snell leads the NL in ERA and should be able to handle his own, while I’m expecting Wainwright to have a “better” (less than five runs allowed) start.
Pick: Under 9.5
Moneyline pick
The Padres pick up a win. They’re going to need to play perfect baseball down the stretch to make it to the postseason, and I think the start the final month of the season with a win.
Pick: Padres